Euro 2012: The Knockout Stages

Well what an intriguing tournament it’s been so far. The football has been, on the most part, excellent and we’ve seen a number of shocks which have really spiced up the quarter final stage.

Karagounis has been instrumental for the Greeks during these championships.

Group A was always going to be the most open of the groups but few would have been brave enough to predict that Greece and the Czechs would make it through. It seemed that Russia and Poland were destined for the knockout stages but the Czechs somehow managed to recover from their 4-1 drubbing at the hands of the Russians and record two straight wins. The Greeks (and as anyone who read my group stage preview will know, I landed the Greeks in the sweepstake) scraped through by the skin of their teeth, recording just one win from their three group games.

Germany are favourites to win the tournament after impressing in the group stage

The reward for the Czechs is a tricky tie against Portugal tonight. Portugal were the dark horse in Group B and overcame Denmark after a thriller and beat the Netherlands fairly comfortably before pushing the otherwise dominant Germans all the way. Germany will face Greece in their quarter final and the game will have political connotations after the relationship between Greece and Germany has soured during the Eurozone crisis. Germany will be heavy favourites since they are the only team in the competition with a 100% record. I predicted that they’d be ruthlessly efficient and that’s what they were, winning every game by one goal to serenly progress from the ‘Group of Death’. As for the Dutch, they will go home and analyse just why they failed to fulfill their massive potential again.

Torres will have to propel this Spain side forward

Spain came to Poland and Ukraine looking to dazzle Europe with tiki-taka before claiming a hat-trick of major international competitions. Sadly, like France in 2002, they’ve disappointed so far. Yes, they’ve played well and gave the Irish a lesson but when the pressure was on against Italy they seemed to suffer from nerves. The re-emergence of Fernando Torres has given the Spanish a focal point but I’m still not confident that they’ll come away with the trophy. Italy just about made it through to the quarter finals after Prandelli’s tactical gambles started to pay off. Much of their success is based on keeping a clean sheet and striking on the counter but against sides such as Germany, that tactic will be hard to carry out. Croatia actually impressed the most in Group C. They looked comfortable going forward and pushed Spain and Italy very close. They’re just short of one or two good players in defence otherwise they’d have all the makings of a top-notch side.

Rooney’s served his ban and will be looking to terrorise the defences of Europe

Spain vs France is perhaps the stand-out tie of the quarter finals. Both sides have a lot to prove after disappointing efforts in the group stage. I think Spain have enough about them to quell the French goal threat and should progress but they can’t be as complacent as they’ve been up until now. On their day (well, against Ukraine) the French looked very good indeed and I think they’ll prefer being the underdogs for that one. England vs Italy looks like another mouth-watering morsel. Both sides are evenly matched, both are looking to confound pre-tournament expectations and both will look to play a direct, counter-attacking style. England have the benefit of Wayne Rooney returning from suspension and immediately getting in amongst the goals while Italy will focus on Di Natale and Balotelli with an onus on De Rossi and Pirlo in midfield stopping any potential England attack. It’ll be one for that tacticians but whoever wins has to have a lot of belief going into the semis…

So, after my predictions so far have been, in typical style, miles wide of the mark I’m going to do the only logical thing and give some more:

Quarter Final 1

Czech Republic vs Portugal

Winner: Portugal

Quarter Final 2

Germany vs Greece

Winner: Germany

Quarter Final 3

Spain vs France

Winner: Spain

Quarter Final 4

England vs Italy

Winner: England

Semi Final 1

Portugal vs Spain

Winner: Spain

Semi Final 2

Germany vs England

Winner: Germany (on penalties, naturally)

Final

Spain vs Germany

Winner: Germany

If that happens it’ll be a miracle judging from how far out I was in my group stage predictions but it’s probably the most logical outcome. Football tends to disobey logic at every convenience so here’s toasting a Greece vs Italy final!

Redknapp Sacked by Spurs

I didn’t expect to be having to write this blog today. The news is filtering through that Harry Redknapp has been sacked by Spurs after failing to guide the side to Champions League football last season. There have been rumours of trouble for a couple of weeks now after Tottenham suffered a horrendous slump in form towards the end of the season, going from a clear third place to finishing a close fourth in the space of three months.

Harry Redknapp is left to ponder his next career move after being shown the exit at Spurs.

Of course much of that lack of form was brought about because of off-the-field issues. Firstly, ‘Arry had his day in court fighting charges of tax evasion before his well publicised courtship of the England manager’s post. He gambled his entire career on getting that job but sadly the gamble appears to have backfired. His behaviour over the past couple of months has been getting stranger and stranger as he veered from denying and then confirming his interest in the England job, stating that he would most likely sell most of Tottenham’s best players and then just this week saying that he wasn’t going to resign his post at White Hart Lane, basically offering Spurs the chance to sack him.

Those who know me will know that I’m not Redknapp’s biggest fan. I think that he’s over-rated having spent vast amounts of money for a moderate amount of success. That being said, I will defend his record at Spurs vehemently. He has galvanised a team that a few seasons ago looked like they were going to languish in mid-table and has turned them into genuine top four contenders. I think Spurs will find it difficult to replace him and tonight’s events could end up being a disaster for both parties. I can’t wait to hear what he’s got to say on the matter and where his next move lays – maybe a spell abroad?

David Moyes could be Redknapp’s replacement.

So where do Tottenham turn now? Well the early runaway favourite is Everton’s David Moyes. Moyes is one of my favourite managers in the Premier League and the complete opposite to Redknapp. He’s shy, thinks before he speaks and has achieved minor miracles at Everton on a shoestring budget. He guided them to their staple 7th place in the league (above arch-rivals Liverpool) and has got them playing some lovely stuff. I just think that Spurs will be simply too different to Everton. Moyes is in a good place at Goodison Park and we’ve seen how managers who are nicely bedded at their club leave and end up being failures at their new club (Hodgson at Liverpool, Hughes at City etc…) I can see Moyes ruining his chances of the Man United job (the one he really wants) with a terrible spell at Spurs but on the other hand it could be the thrust into the big time that he deserves.

I think he’d relish the chance to work with the young, talented team that Tottenham have and he might even be able to persuade a few of his Everton boys to follow him down to London. I’m just not convinced that Moyes would want to leave Everton yet. I’m sure he sees them as deserving of a place in the top four and won’t leave until they get there. Whatever happens, this story has massive implications for the start of the season and Spurs fans will be hoping an appointment is made swiftly.

Euro 2012 Preview

The European Championships are almost upon us with the game between Poland and Greece this afternoon in Warsaw acting as the official curtain-raiser to a tournament that threatens to be overshadowed by off-field issues. With English expectations displaying a distinct air of pessimism, attention in the British media has turned to the potential threat of violent and racist abuse during the Championships. We’ll go onto that later but for now lets focus on footballing matters with a preview of the groups and players to watch.

Expect a few Premier League scouts to be keeping a keen eye on Alan Dzagoev.

Group A

Poland

Greece

Russia

Czech Republic

The clear favourites to win the group are Russia and with good reason. In a fairly  weak group they have the most organised side with a manager with proven success in Dick Advocaat. They should just have the cutting edge over the other teams who will rely on their rock solid defences to get them through.

Poland will be hoping that home advantage (for at least half the tournament) can inspire their players to exceed expectations. Expect Dortmund players Lewandowski, Blaszczykowski and Pisczceck to be integral to the Poles’ chance of success.

The Czechs usually perform well at the Euros (remember Euro 96?) and they could well be the dark horses of the group this time round. In Petr Cech, they have a world class ‘keeper on a high from his recent Champions League success who will be hard to beat. Tomas Necid will be their main hope for goals alongside Milan Baros but these have been hard to come by recently for the Czechs. It should be between the Poles and the Czechs for second place.

Finally, we come to Greece. Unfortunately for the troubled Greek public (and me seeing as I got them in the sweepstake) Euro 2012 doesn’t promise to be the antidote for economic depression that they want it to be. The Greeks might have won in 2004 using a brand of defensive football that was so backwards the rest of Europe didn’t quite know how to play against it. Admittedly I thought at times they were fantastic in 2004 particularly against France at the quarter-final stage. Sadly though, the Greeks haven’t evolved their style of football since their unexpected triumph and have been left behind by tiki-taka and the like. I fully expect Greece to be the whipping boys of Group A but for my sake and that of the Greek people, I’ll be clinging to the cliché that anything can happen in football.

One to Watch

It’s between Necid and Russia’s Alan Dzagoev. Dzagoev promises to be the more explosive and with decent service he could make the difference in a group that is so focused on keeping a clean sheet. If he does that, CSKA Moscow can expect a stiff battle to hold onto his services.

Can Cristiano Ronaldo win his first major international tournament?

Group B

Netherlands

Denmark

Germany

Portugal

This is the definition of “Group of Death”. It’s a bit of a travesty that Group A is so weak and this group is terrifyingly good. To think that the competition is going to lose big name from Sneijder,  Eriksen, Ozil and Ronaldo after just three games is a sobering prospect. The Netherlands and Germany are my top two but it would be no surprise to see the other two sides pushing them all the way.

The Netherlands were very impressive at the 2010 World Cup… until they threw all their hard work away by auditioning for a kung-fu movie during the final. You look at their squad and see talent in every department. In goal they have an enviable choice between Maarten Stekelenburg, Tim Krul and Michel Vorm and while their defence is the weak link in the side there’s still the talent of Van der Wiel, Heitinga and Bouma. Where the Dutch really come alive is in the midfield with a ridiculously strong showing in the centre of the park; Van der Vaart, Sneijder, Robben, Van Bommel and de Jong are all present behind Robin Van Persie who has been in scintillating form this season. This could just be the Netherlands’ tournament.

Germany have been a bit off colour in their warm up matches, losing 5-3 to Switzerland before lumbering to a 2-0 win over Israel. That being said, Germany always have a knack of performing at major tournaments no matter what form they’ve been in previously. Like the Netherlands, they have a brilliant squad that is capable of beating anyone but their focus is likely to be on the forward threats. Mesut Ozil has proved himself to be one of the best playmakers in the world and he’ll play alongside Thomas Müller, Toni Kroos, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Lukas Podolski and the exceptional wonderkid Mario Götze. In addition to that fearsome group you can add Mario Gomez, Phillip Lahm and Manuel Neuer to create a well-rounded team. If Germany find their form early on then it’ll be difficult to stop them reaching the latter stages.

Portugal are perhaps the most likely to disrupt the Germany/Netherlands stronghold. Of course they’ll need to rely on Cristiano Ronaldo and his impressive record of 60 goals this season in all competitions for Real Madrid. Unfortunately for Portugal and Ronaldo, the squad looks likely to have to rely solely on him for success as per usual due to a lack of depth and key players suffering from a lack of form. Nani in particular is one who hasn’t performed this season and will be under intense pressure to compliment Ronaldo’s creativity. One saving grace for the Portuguese is the presence of Pepe who has been in good form all season and can organise the defence against the threats from Netherlands and Germany. In Ronaldo they have the best player in the tournament but he’ll need to be in his very best form in order for Portugal to trouble the knockout stages.

Lastly we have Denmark and they could be a bit of a dark horse. Christian Eriksen will be key to any success that Denmark is to have in Poland and Ukraine and Danish fans will be hoping that he puts in a performance that matches his potential. Denmark can also rely on Christian Poulsen and Thomas Kahlenberg in midfield while the talented Simon Kjaer can provide some solidarity at the back. Up front, Nicklas Bendtner will have to start finishing his chances if Denmark are going to get anywhere in this competition. Fortunately for the Danes, they play some nice football which should at least keep them in the hunt for victories.

One to Watch

Take your pick from Robben, Sneijder, Van Persie, Gomez, Müller, Götze and Ronaldo. It’s probably the latter who will stand out individually seeing as he is Portugal’s main force of attack in addition to being the best player in the tournament. I think he’ll relish the challenge of leading his team into battle against the likes of the Netherlands and Germany and will back himself to win having almost single handedly guided Real Madrid to La Liga success.

Xavi and Iniesta’s beautiful passing football will be integral to Spain’s success

Group C

Spain

Italy

Republic of Ireland

Croatia

Spain have the chance to win their second consecutive European Championship in addition to their 2010 World Cup success. If they do win this tournament then it is safe to say that this Spain squad can be regarded as one of the greatest to ever play on the international stage. However, their path to victory may not be as simple as it was in 2008 or in 2010. The squad is older now and they’re missing key players in David Villa and Carles Puyol; lets not forget that David Villa almost single-handedly took Spain to the World Cup final with his goalscoring ability and it will be up to misfiring striker Fernando Torres to step into the breach. That being said, the squad seems to blend together with ease. Both Real Madrid and Barcelona players embrace the tiki-taka style of play which leads to some scintillating stuff being produced. The midfield is the heartbeat of the Spanish side and during this tournament they can call upon: David Silva, Xabi Alonso, Cesc Fabregas, Xavi, Iniesta, Sergio Busquets and Jesus Navas. On paper they’re the best side here but a gruelling domestic season and complacency could scupper their chances, remember what happened to France after their back-to-back victories?

Italy are the other side fancied to progress from this group. Unlike Spain, they had a disastrous World Cup and will look to improve on that poor showing. Italy has a good squad to call upon with players such as Buffon, Pirlo, De Rossi and Chiellini all returning from an impressive domestic campaign. Much rests on the shoulders of that lovable rogue, Mario Balotelli, who will be tasked with combining his considerable talent with some aptitude. If he turns up with the right attitude then Italy could do well and he could be one of the stars of the tournament but if he lets the threat of racist abuse get to him (more on that later) Italy’s gameplan could become undone. There’s also been a lot of off-field dramas which could derail their bid for victory; recent earthquakes and the infamous match-fixing scandal have caused Italians to re-examine their relationship with the national game. Domenico Criscito is a notable absence from the final squad as he seeks to clear his name from the scandal. If they can work to triumph in the face of adversity then they could be quite a formidable side. Much will depend on their first two games against Spain and Croatia but I’ll stick my neck out and say they’ll make it through the group.

Croatia could pose a threat to Spain and Italy if they get their attack working nicely. Luka Modric has always been earmarked as one of the world’s top players but I never felt that he’s had the impact of others around him. He usually performs well for Croatia though so I can see him being the key player for Slaven Bilic’s side. His role will be to get the ball to Croatia’s potentially potent front-line which includes Everton’s Nikica Jelavic. If Croatia has a weakness then it is their weak defence which Spain will relish picking holes in. It’s an experienced back-line but will still fall apart against slick passing play. The rest of the side looks a match for Italy and that game on the 14th June could be crucial in this group.

The underdogs in this group are the Republic of Ireland. They will see this tournament as vindication for failing to make the last World Cup because of THAT handball but sadly they’ve been dealt a rough hand with this draw. They’ve found goals hard to come by and Robbie Keane is their biggest threat in front of goal. One factor that counts in their favour is the squad’s experience – players like Shay Given, Damien Duff, Robbie Keane, John O’Shea and Richard Dunne have all played on the biggest stages in football and will be undaunted by the prospect of these championships. I think the Republic of Ireland will enjoy the experience of competing in Poland and Ukraine but I don’t think we can hold our breath for an Irish presence in the knockout stages.

One to Watch

Balotelli could be the most explosive player in the group but I think one of the Spanish players will stand out. Torres has the chance to prove he’s still the player he once was and Xavi and Iniesta always catch the eye but I think that David Silva will be the star performer. He’s been in great form all season for Man City and will be a menace for the defence’s in this group.

Can Karim Benzema lead the French to glory?

Group D

Ukraine

England

France

Sweden

England fans, look away now. I think we’ll get mercilessly slaughtered at these Championships. People point to Euro 96 as being similar to this – low expectations, injuries to key players and an ‘atmosphere’ within the team – but Euro 96 was held on our home turf, not hundreds of miles away on the continent. To be fair we’ve been dealt a rough hand with this group. It was just about as bad as it could be. Our perennial group stage opponents Sweden will pose a challenge and France will obliterate us. The absence of Rooney is big but he wouldn’t be able to make up for the shortfall in talent that we have elsewhere. We might have beaten Norway and Belgium in our warm-up games but they didn’t have the quality to make it to this tournament and they outplayed us for large periods of the game. In Roy Hodgson we have a manager who is tactically astute and internationally experienced and he has done the right thing by bringing in youth to this tournament, giving them the chance to gain valuable experience ahead of the 2014 World Cup. I’m predicting a loss and two draws on the way to a disappointing exit in the group stages.

France on the other hand look sublime. Laurent Blanc has galvanised a side that has promised much in recent years but delivered little. The squad has excellent depth and combines promising youngsters with seasoned veterans. The French now appreciate possession and have invented a brand of football not too dissimilar to Spain’s but with a certain Gallic flair. They’re unbeaten in 18 matches and have recorded wins over Brazil and Germany in that time. Players such as Yann M’Vila, Blaise Matuidi and Marvin Martin will step up to the mark during this tournament and will provide the creativity that the French were so lacking at the last World Cup. Their weakness is in their attacking strength, having picked only two recognised strikers. It’s not a bad partnership – Olivier Giroud and Karim Benzema – who have spearheaded Montpelier and Real Madrid to domestic glory respectively but if one of them gets injured then it’s curtains for the French campaign. If they keep them fit and get them lots of service then France are destined to finish in the top four.

Sweden are a bit like a weed when it comes to international competitions – they’re always present but they just sort of sit there. Apart from the days of Brolin and Dahlin, the Swedes haven’t set the world alight but I fancy them to pounce on a weak English side and qualify for the latter stages. Sebastian Larsson and the always entertaining Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be vital for the Swedes with the latter being the main focus of attack. If Ibrahimovic forgets his scoring boots then the Swedes will be packing their bags. Another key player will be Martin Olsson who will be tasked with organising a pretty shaky defence. If they can keep firm at the back then that might just be enough to see them through the group.

Co-hosts Ukraine must be feeling the pressure. While Poland have a fighting chance of making it out of their group, the Zbirna need a minor miracle. Attention will turn to Andriy Shevchenko (now aged a sprightly 35), Andriy Voronin and Artem Milevskiy. Andriy Yarmolenko could also be a handy player but sadly I think they’ll come up short in a group that looks set to be dominated by the French. Hopefully the Ukrainian fans will realise just what a tall order it is to qualify from this group and won’t be too hard on the players when the inevitable happens.

One to Watch

Baring Danny Welbeck, Jordan Henderson or Oxlade-Chamberlain setting the world alight, I think we have to look at a Frenchman to be the star of Group D. Take your pick from staple players like Ribery, Lloris and Mexes or from the array of impressive youngsters such as Adil Ramil, Yann M’Vila and Marvin Martin. I think either Yohan Cabaye or Samir Nasri will impress the most. Both have been excellent for their sides in the Premier League and should make the step onto the international stage with ease.

UEFA will hope that images like these aren’t what the world takes away from Euro 2012

Sadly, as I mentioned earlier, external issues threaten to overshadow the prospect of a classic tournament. The most prevalent of these concerns is a far-right presence in Poland and Ukraine. A vast number of reports have provided evidence of planned abuse of black players and pro-Nazi chanting. Mario Balotelli has threatened retribution if he is racially abused and several black players’ relatives have decided against travelling. UEFA has tried to downplay the far-right activity but has ended up ‘doing a bit of a FIFA’ in PR terms. Michel Platini said that any player walking off the field of play due to racist abuse would be given a yellow card, completely contrasting the view of the majority of the developed Western world. When the inevitable racism occurs UEFA will have to walk a very delicate line with their response. In fact, it has emerged that black Dutch players were targeted in an open training session in Krakow with UEFA claiming that locals were just angry about the city not hosting a game at the Championships. That’s fine for now but what about when the racism occurs at a stadium that is hosting a game?

Another issue has been the boycott of UK ministers (and the proposed boycott of other EU ministers) of the Championships due to the alleged human rights abuse in Ukraine. Opposition leader Yulia Tymoschenko has been imprisoned for corruption but many believe that the current government took a dim view of her part in the Orange Revolution of 2004. She has since gone on hunger strike during her time in prison and the Ukrainian authorities have tried to brush the story under the carpet. If the EU ministers do boycott then it could be a major embarrassment for the organisers and sponsors.

Predictions

I truly believe that this tournament has the potential to be an absolute classic. You’ve got four or five teams of utmost quality – namely France, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands – who can all produce the highest standard of football on their day. Behind them there’s Italy, Portugal, Russia and England who will be hoping to defy the odds with a little bit of luck. It all makes for a fascinating prospect (aside from the external issues of course.)

Here’s my prediction for the top 4:

Winner: Germany

Runner-up: Spain

3rd Place: France

4th Place: Netherlands

Germany have the efficiency required to counter Spain’s possession football and I make them favourites for the tournament. They’re well-organised, talented, young and have a good amount of depth. France should look forward to a strong showing but they’ll come to regret not picking more than 2 strikers while I think the Netherlands will continue to underachieve at elite competition level.

16 teams will dream of lifting this in a few weeks time.

We’ll do another preview at the knockout stage but until then come on the Greeks!

UEFA Champions League Final Preview

Tonight see’s the final of Europe’s premier football competition. Bayern Munich and Chelsea have seen off the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid to make it this far and will now compete in front of a global audience of millions for the title of best team in Europe and for an estimated £48 million in prize money!

Chelsea

Can the Blues pull off another surprise tonight?

Few expected Chelsea to make it anywhere near this far after all they were 3-1 down on aggregate against Napoli in the first knockout round and had to face the might of Barcelona in the semis but they survived those tests and their reward is a chance to win their first Champions League and avenge the penalty defeat against Manchester United in 2008.

Their problem tonight will be coping against a potent Bayern attack without the likes of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic who both miss out through suspension. They’re also missing Raul Meireles and Ramires who are two important creative forces in the middle of the park. As if that wasn’t bad enough, there are also major doubts over the fitness of David Luiz and Gary Cahill who would make up the centre-back partnership tonight. So Roberto di Matteo’s men are out of it before the game has even kicked off? Well, not exactly. They’ve been up against it pretty much all season and who would’ve bet on them reaching a Champions League final and winning the FA Cup? Tonight could see one final act of magic from the squad and they have the players and motivation to do it.

Firstly, Didier Drogba looks as potent as ever after inspiring Chelsea to FA Cup success. He relishes the big occasion and Bayern will find it difficult to control the big man. Torres has shown glimpses of a return to form by bagging a hat-trick against QPR and the winner against Barcelona before that although he will likely only feature as a substitute tonight. In addition to them, Chelsea can rely on Juan Mata who has been one of the signings of the season. He’ll be sure to supply some of the pace and creativity that the Blues are lacking in other areas of midfield tonight. Chelsea can certainly score tonight and if they score first then there’s no reason why they can’t employ the same tactics that they did against Barcelona and defend for 70-odd minutes.

Secondly a few of the players such as Drogba, Ashley Cole, Frank Lampard and Petr Cech know that tonight could be the last Champions League final that they play in. If that’s not motivation enough to go out and perform some heroics then I don’t know what is.

Bayern Munich

Bayern will be looking to win their fifth Champions League tonight.

On paper, this Bayern side has enough about them to beat Chelsea tonight but football matches aren’t played on paper. Ironically Bayern are playing tonight’s final at their home stadium – the Allianz Arena, and so will have a slight psychological advantage tonight. That being said, Bayern do have problems of their own. Like Chelsea they have players suspended in the shape of Holger Badstuber, Luiz Gustavo and David Alaba while Daniel Van Buyten will face a late fitness test. You’ve got to admire the strength of Bayern’s attack though. I said that Bayern were, in my view, the third best all-round team in Europe (behind Barcelona and Real Madrid) but I think they’re on a level footing with them when it comes to the midfield and frontline.

Can you imagine a better wing partnership than Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben? Then in front of them there’s Mario Gomez and that’s without even mentioning Schweinsteiger, Thomas Muller and Toni Kroos. In fact, I’d say that Bayern will be harder to shut out than Barcelona because they are not set in one way of playing football like Barca are. Bayern are brutally efficient and combine the best of the English game with the best of the German, Spanish and Italian games. Another key element in the team is Phillip Lahm who can provide an attacking impetus from the back – something that Chelsea will have to stop before it starts.

There are flaws in the Bayern team though and perhaps the most obvious is Manuel Neuer. He’s been inconsistent since joining from Schalke and has dropped a fair few clangers at important stages of the season. If the pressure gets to him tonight then I expect Chelsea to have a field day pelting shots at him. The centre-back area could be a bit makeshift too if Van Buyten doesn’t make the starting XI as his likely replacement would be Anatoly Tymoschuk – a natural defensive midfielder. He could be caught out of position and silly mistakes like that  simply can’t be allowed to happen in a Champions League final (remember last season’s final, United didn’t close down Messi and he made them pay.)

Prediction

I’m still leaning towards a Bayern victory but it won’t be as clear cut as most of the bookmakers think it will be. I fancy Gomez to score but don’t rule out Drogba at the other end. If Luiz and Cahill are on the same wavelength then they should be a stronger alternative to Tymoschuk and Contento. With both teams having suffered final heartache within the last five years, it promises to be a passionate affair. With an expectant German crowd watching Bayern will be under pressure to deliver and that could lead to an open game.

For that reason, I’m going for a 3-2 Bayern win. Ambitious I know but I’m feeling lucky.

Newcastle United: Rolling Back the Years

I’ll admit it – my favourite team at the moment is Newcastle United. Who can blame me though? They’ve been sumptuous over the last few weeks and have reminded me of Keegan’s Newcastle of 95-97 and from the same side that was playing Championship football two seasons ago. The arrival of Papiss Cisse has breathed new life into the Premier League and given me a new cult hero to admire (he got a £6 haircut in Newcastle the other day). 11 goals in 10 games for the Toon Army suggests that he’s not too bad either! With Newcastle headed for Europe next season, I’m going to try and compare the key players in the current side to those from the mid 90s Newcastle and while it probably won’t work, we’ll give it a go.

Papiss Cisse/Faustino Asprilla

Like Cisse, Asprilla arrived midway through the season and made an instant impact with a great assist against fierce rivals Middlesbrough but that’s what the similarities end. Asprilla went off the rails a bit and his performances tailed off while Cisse seems to be very professional if slightly overwhelmed by the whole Geordie experience but Pardew appears have to dug up a gem. He’s been on the radar of bigger clubs for a while now but Newcastle have got a coup that could see them into the Champions League next season.

Yohan Cabaye/Rob Lee

Complete contrast of skills here – Cabaye with his continental flair versus Lee’s industrial play in the centre of the park. Cabaye has been a revelation since arriving on Tyneside. With the fans still upset at the loss of Kevin Nolan to West Ham, Cabaye came in and impressed with his superb vision and passing ability. Back in the 90s, Rob Lee was declared the best midfielder in Britain by Keegan and was a lynchpin of the team. He’s no match for Cabaye though as yesterday’s performance against Stoke demonstrates – if Newcastle can hold onto him then they will be a threat for years to come.

Hatem Ben Arfa/David Ginola

Two players who are strikingly similar – except for the hair. Both French, both demons down the wing and both great crossers of the ball. Ben Arfa is the Ginola of today and hopefully will go on to be as influential to the English game as the long-haired wonder was. After suffering a broken leg last season, he’s shown the potential that he always had throughout this campaign. I wouldn’t bet on him starring in a L’Oreal advert though…

Demba Ba/Les Ferdinand

Remember Demba Ba at West Ham? Me neither but at Newcastle he was something of a revelation during the first half of the season, scoring at a similar rate to Big Les. He’s gone off the boil a bit since the arrival of Cisse as he’s been played on the left wing but he’s still an integral part of the team. Ferdinand joined for £6 million in 1995 and went on to form a great partnership with Alan Shearer and Newcastle fans will be hoping the Senegalese duo of Ba and Cisse can do the same.

I’d like to think that the Newcastle of today aren’t too dissimilar to the Keegan team and it’s an exciting time to be a Newcastle fan right now. I’d love to see them finish fourth and get Champions League football but I worry that the fans would want too much of the team if they did that. For neutrals like me, they’re an absolute pleasure to watch and I wish them every success for the rest of the season.

The Premier League Can No Longer Lay Claim to Being the Best League in the World

For a long time now there has been an arrogance in English football that the English Premier League is the best league in the world. The clubs, the players, the media and the fans all are entirely convinced that the football they are seeing is better than anything else out there. Yet, with only one English club left in any European competition, can that still be the case?

The logo depicts itself as a beacon to the rest of the footballing world, but just how true is that?

There was a time when that was certainly true. The days of Ronaldo, Tevez and Rooney at United and Drogba, Terry and Lampard all in form at Chelsea proved that no-one could touch the Premier League. In addition, there were Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs sides who were improving all the while and a tightness around the mid-table. All this culminated in the 2008 Champions League final in Moscow between, you guessed it, Man United and Chelsea. The tight 1-1 draw followed by United edging the penalty shootout was supposed to reflect the fact that at the pinnacle of English football the defences are rock solid, the midfield is a fountain of creativity and the strikers are capable of the most spectacular goals. Of course what we know now is that Premier League football has a habit of being defensive and at times desperate.

This isn’t a problem confined to the Premier League though. Serie A, once that brilliant and unpredictable league that everyone tucked into their Sunday lunch with, now is a shadow of its former self. Where the best players in the world once roamed, only a few really top class players remain and the game is still trying to forget the unfortunate match-fixing scandal of a few year’s ago. I’m not saying that English clubs are going to get embroiled in anything like that but a look north of the border at what has happened to Rangers might just provide a wake up call to many of the teams. If just one big club goes under and there is an outflow of the foreign owners, what will happen then?

I’ve been banging on to anyone who’ll listen that the Spanish became the home of the best football on the planet as soon as Real Madrid and Barcelona opened their pockets and brought players such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Kaka, Alexis Sanchez, Fabregas and Xabi Alonso over to La Liga. Having the three best players in the world for the last few seasons playing in La Liga has raised the entire standard of Spanish football. Por ejemplo (full of surprises aren’t I?) just look at Atheltic Bilbao’s brutal dismantling of Manchester United a few weeks ago. United, leading the Premier League and supposedly England’s best club, were outplayed and out-thought both at home and away. Bilbao played some scintillating stuff while United very often resorted to long ball tactics – not exactly dynamic is it? Meanwhile, Bilbao have tonight secured their place in the semi-finals of the Europa League with another impressive win over Schalke. This from a team who three years ago played a friendly against my local team, Colchester United and were very much cannon fodder for the bigger clubs in Spain until recently. The real issue though is that we’ve lost quality from the Premier League. People can point to Van Persie,Aguero and Silva but none of them have the impact that Ronaldo did at United or that Henry did at Arsenal. In Ronaldo and Henry, the Premier League had its first two players who could potentially be labelled in the ‘greatest ever’ category but inevitably they had to move on at some point and the Premier League just hasn’t been able to lure a player of that calibre since.

Fernando Torres' lack of form symbolises the plight of the Premier League

That has led to the league becoming tighter and in some people’s eyes better. I think it’s great to see teams like Newcastle and Spurs becoming genuine fourth place contenders but that sort of system has been in place for years in Spain. Valencia, Villareal, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla regularly fought it out for the European places over the past few seasons. I think another issue with the Premier League is that we have a lot of big names over here, on big pay packets but they’re not in their peak like they are over in Spain. Torres, Terry, Ferdinand, Berbatov, Drogba and Gerrard would have been the most desirable collectibles in the Panini sticker album a few seasons ago but now they’re out of form and looking old. I know that most people say that the only reason La Liga is so popular now is down to Messi and Ronaldo. But if you look beyond them, beyond Real Madrid and Barcelona even and you can still see real talent. There’s Iker Muniain at Bilbao, Falcao at Atletico Madrid, Roberto Soldado at Valencia, Jeremy Toulalan, Ruud Van Nistelrooy and Julio Baptista at Malaga and Jesus Navas at Sevilla. Almost every team has a talisman who could make the jump over to anywhere in European football and I can’t really see someone like Tim Cahill doing that – sorry Everton fans. The depth of the league isn’t quite up to the level of late 80s/early 90s Serie A but it’s getting there.

Lionel Messi, just one of the many reasons why La Liga is so entertaining

The style of football is also much prettier on the eye over there. I’m very much someone who’d appreciate a 0-0 draw full of attacking, quick passing football instead of a 2-0 win that was claimed through dull passages of play and physical football. People fawn over Barcelona’s style but watch Revista de La Liga and the majority of teams play football like that, it’s just that Barcelona do it better. The closest we have to that here are Arsenal, Swansea and Man City but only when they’re on form. I’ve just lost faith in the English game and am genuinely fearful that if we get far enough to play Spain at Euro 2012 that we’ll be completely slaughtered in front of millions of viewers. I’d dare say Germany would do the same – the Bundesliga is becoming a cracking little league too. Dortmund have a young, brilliant team while Bayern are a match for Barcelona and Madrid for the title of best all-round unit.

I’m not saying that the Premier League is the worst league in European football, far from it actually, but we just need to stop this attitude that just because our league is the richest in the world, it doesn’t make it the best. Chelsea, Man City and United can have all the millions in the world but without a player to match Messi then they might as well have nothing. Coming onto Barcelona I’d like to say that they were an absolute joy to watch the other night against Milan. Messi, Xavi and Iniesta will be remembered as three Gods of the game. It’s also important to remember that they beat a strong Milan side without 20 goal a season man David Villa and without a recognised left-back. Chelsea will give it their best, as they always do, but I fully expect them to be taught a footballing lesson by the Catalan giants. Those four years since Moscow must feel like an awful long time ago….

The Return of the Prodigal Son

Tevez helped City to a 2-1 win last night but can the events of the past really be forgotten?

What a difference a month makes. Four weeks ago and Carlos Tevez had just returned to Manchester after his lengthy AWOL period in Argentina. With his tail between his legs, he made a grovelling apology to the club, the fans and manager Roberto Mancini. Last night Tevez returned to action, ironically coming off the bench, and set up Samir Nasri for the winning goal against Chelsea. It was the final step of Tevez’s reintegration with his team and the talk is now of Tevez powering City to their first Premier League title. My question is, do they really need him?

I can’t imagine many of the City first team welcoming Tevez back with open arms after he deserted them last September. That tension permeated the club and may have cost them against Swansea a couple of weeks ago. Tevez is not a different person, he is just back because he realised that no other club could afford to take him away from the Etihad. He needs to prove that he is willing to give 100% for the club, he needs to show passion and commitment whenever he steps on the pitch. I’d still treat him as if he’s ready to throw his toys out of the pram at any second and if it does then Mancini’s big gamble will have backfired spectacularly; what’s more is that any whiff of conflict between Tevez and his manager or teammates and the momentum swings back in United’s favour. Mancini is going to have to manage a very delicate balancing act here.

Don’t get me wrong, Tevez is a great player and any team would want him on their books but City coped perfectly well without him for the last six months.  They became a solid unit and despite losing the lead in the title race, they were still favourites to be crowned Champions come May. Mario Balotelli was finally getting his head down and putting in some important performances, will he now be left to rot on the bench while Tevez steals all the glory? Will Tevez himself be happy to be used in a rotation system when that was what got him all riled up six months ago?

We’ve seen clubs throw away their title chances time and time again: Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea and even Manchester United. The most common factor in their decline was over-tinkering and Manchester City could easily find themselves going the same way. Aguero, Balotelli and Tevez could in theory fill the slots in a 4-3-3 but City have been brilliant with their fluid 4-5-1 all season and who then would Mancini drop from the midfield in order to placate Tevez? The little Argentinian (Tevez, not Aguero) isn’t even at full fitness yet and a yard of pace could be the difference between 1 point and 3; with United looking so strong at the moment, every point counts.

Expect Mancini to go greyer before the end of the season

Yet Mancini could still turn Tevez into the most important player in the team. If I was Roberto, I’d use Tevez as a distraction. Take last night for example, the cameras were focused on Tevez even if as much as coughed and no-0ne remembers Aguero’s equalising penalty as well as the number of other chances he had. If you have the threat of Tevez on the bench, teams will have to come up with a plan to stop him just in case he comes on – that removes time for them to be focusing on your actual starting XI. Let Aguero and Balotelli get the early goals and bring Tevez on as an impact sub. If he impresses, give him a start here and there. Simple.

What interested me though about last night, and gave an insight into how little Mancini trusts Tevez’s fitness right now, was when he substituted Balotelli for Gareth Barry at half-time. You’ve got a world-class striker on the bench who is raring to go and he brings on a central midfielder. Maybe it was used to show Tevez that his road to regular football won’t be an easy one to walk but clearly there is still some resentment from Mancini to Tevez. The fans won’t forget what he did and unless he starts banging in the goals, they’ll be on his back straightaway.

Tevez doesn’t really change anything in regards to where the Premier League trophy is heading at the end of this season. The deciding game will still be City vs United on Monday 30th April but he could provide that extra talent that gives City the advantage. Conversely, he could just decide that Manchester is not really his scene and head off back to Argentina again. City have to face Stoke, Arsenal and Newcastle away before the end of the season while United have a much kinder run-in. Sir Alex Ferguson will be eyeing the return of Tevez intently, looking for any sign of trouble that he can exploit. Tevez cannot expect to waltz back into first team football and the affections of the City fans and Mancini has to ensure that he stays in control, that the players do not become distracted from their goal. Like I said, Tevez is a gamble but the rewards are enormous if it pays off.

Round-Up/Australian Grand Prix Preview/Get Well Soon Fabrice Muamba

Well, what a busy few days it has been in the world of sport. We’ve seen: Synchronized win the Gold Cup in sensational style and Kauto Star bow out of Cheltenham with dignity (a blog post on him coming up in the next few days), Wales clinch a brilliant Grand Slam in the Six Nations, Sachin Tendulkar finally reach his 100th international century as well as the beginning of the 2012 Formula 1 season and tragic events in North London – more of which later. It’s been a crazy week and one that I’ve thoroughly enjoyed (not least of which because I finished £80 up on my bets at Cheltenham.)

Let’s have a more in-depth look at the Australian Grand Prix and let me announce a fairly ambitious project that The Eternal Sunshine will be undertaking for the entire F1 season. We’ll be aiming to cover every race, bringing in analysis and opinion in the form of a race preview after qualifying and a race review after the main event on the Sunday. Hopefully it’ll be a season to remember and not just a constant stream of S. Vettel at the top of the timesheets and leaderboards. Now, unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last year then you’ll know that the BBC have lost the exclusive rights to broadcast F1 until 2018 and they will now be forced to share the coverage with Sky. The BBC will broadcast 10 races live with the rest being covered by highlights later in the day while Sky will be showing every session of every race weekend live and in “High Definition with Dolby 5.1 surround sound” as the rather scary voiceover man keeps telling me everytime I switch on the new channel. Oh yeah, they’ve dedicated an entire channel to F1, GP2 and GP3 (no Le Mans?) which is a clear sign of their dedication to a sport that they have pretty much neglected to mention for the last 10 years. So for this part of the preview I’d like to discuss the Sky broadcasting effort.

Who will win the ratings war?

I’ve watched every single session on Sky so far and the coverage has actually been very good – typical Sky though, lots of shiny graphics and random features that are under the illusion that they bring the viewer closer to the sport but we all know that they are just fillers. I liked their feature on Caterham but there is very much of an ITV feel when it comes to the stats they like to feature before the ad breaks. The presenting team are by far the biggest issue so far. Simon Lazenby is still very green when it comes to F1 and has very much the look of the new boy trying to fit in – he missed a golden opportunity to make a name for himself when he didn’t try and doorstop Alonso when the Spaniard was heading back to the pits after crashing out of Q2. Martin Brundle is still Martin Brundle, very knowledgeable, quite a big ego about his credentials and wanting to be lead presenter while Damon Hill is Sky’s Eddie Jordan without any of the brashness. I loved Damon as a driver but at Sky he never seems to talk without being spoken to which is a shame because he has some good opinions and insight. Ted Kravitz is charming as ever but may face competition from the BBC which we’ll discuss in a second. The main bugbear of my time watching the channel though was the presence of the “Skypad” – basically a studio that houses a giant touchscreen and where Georgie Thompson apparently is caged during the race weekend. She offers nothing to the coverage other than going “Go on then Anthony Davidson, tell everyone what they need to know while I stand here and look pretty” – typical Sky then. As for the rest of the programming, David Croft is a decent commentator but needs to stop trying to out-Murray the great Murray Walker and the ad breaks need to be introduced better. Oh and get some decent programming on the channel, don’t just repeat the same old shows over and over!

I came away from Sky to watch the BBC’s efforts and that’s when it hit me – Sky just didn’t match up. Jake Humphrey is a much better presenter than Lazenby and has a much more natural rapport with the drivers and his co-presenter. Coulthard is much more relaxed in his role as a number 2 and Ben Edwards is perhaps the most talented commentator working at the moment. Where the BBC has really upped the game though is in the technical analysis. Ted Kravitz was very good at his job but could only go so far in his analysis but his replacement, ex-Jordan designer Gary Anderson, can be much more detailed. His reports so far have been simply superb and enlightening, check out his analysis of Ferrari’s woes for example. The BBC’s coverage was just slicker and the change in personnel has really freshened the feel of the programme up and the reduced running time has also improved the show. It wasn’t like Sky was bad but as my girlfriend put it, it was like having to adjust to Matt Smith as The Doctor after being used to David Tennant, who she loves. Round one to BBC then.

Away from the broadcasting, qualifying itself was a thrilling affair. I can’t remember a session as exciting as that for many years. The field is so tightly packed this season that anyone from McLaren, Red Bull, Lotus, Mercedes or even the Williams’ could have taken pole position. Let’s go through session by session.

Qualifying 1

With 24 cars on track the biggest problem in the opening minutes was traffic with the HRT of Nahrain Karthikeyan attracting particular criticism as he held up first Alonso then Vettel. Neither HRT would set a time within 107% of the quickest time in Q1 so will not make the grid – a relief to the rest of the cars I’m sure. The usual suspects of Marussia (formerly Virgin) and Caterham were eliminated after Q1 but by far the biggest shock of the session and of the day was Kimi Raikonnen’s sloppy performance that left him down in 18th, later revised to 17th after Perez got a penalty for replacing his gearbox. Raikonnen had struggled all weekend with a steering issue and never looked like matching the pace of his less experienced teammate. A mistake coming out of the Waite chicane that put him on the grass cost him a faster time and it’ll be fascinating to see how he makes up the places tomorrow.

Qualifying 2

Q2 was always going to be a tight battle with one big team going out and that big team turned out to be Ferrari. They’ve struggled with their car all through the winter and in Melbourne it looked twitchier than ever with Massa ending up in the gravel in practice and Alonso wrestling the car almost every lap. The pull-rod front suspension seems to have not worked the way the team expected although we’re truly seeing how good a driver Alonso is and that can only be good for the neutral. Massa just couldn’t handle the imbalance of the car and ended up 16th. Alonso was just getting his eye in and looking like he could scrape into Q3 but he dropped a wheel onto the grass on the entry to turn 1 and ended up beached in the gravel, leaving him 12th. Another disappointment were the two Saubers who again failed to live up to their winter testing pace and they ended up 13th and 22nd (after Perez’s gearbox change.) Toro Rosso were very solid and their new car continued to impress with Ricciardo getting into Q3 ahead of Jean-Eric Vergne in 11th. Paul di Resta was left rueing a lack of consistency on his tyres and traffic as he languished down in 15th but the big trend in Q2 was that the midfield was so tight this season.

What a way to bounce back - he has got to be happy with that

Qualifying 3

This session was all about one man – Lewis Hamilton. His lap in the early minutes of Q3 was not beaten with only Jenson Button coming close. The McLarens had looked strong all weekend but I’m not sure if that’s down to pure pace or the fact that their car is suited to this circuit. Romain Grosjean put in the performance of the day to snatch 3rd for Lotus ahead of 7 time World Champion Michael Schumacher. Mercedes are the talk of the paddock after it was revealed that their DRS system has a built in F-duct within the rear wing. When the DRS is activated, the airflow is re-distributed around the rear of the car via a slot within the endplate – all very simple – but Lotus have complained the F-duct is driver operated and protested the qualifying results. Personally, I think it’s perfectly legal and the F-duct is acting as a secondary device but then so was the infamous ride-height system that Lotus and Ferrari were working on so by that basis, that should be deemed legal too. Rosberg, in the other Silver Arrow,  had two minor mistakes that cost him time and left him in 7th. As for Red Bull, they massively disappointed me today. All the talk had been of them still having to show their hand and Christian Horner even said that they hadn’t run a low fuel programme all winter before qualifying but when push came to shove, they just didn’t have the pace. Webber qualified 5th with KERS issues and Vettel could only manage 6th. The reigning World Champion looked uneasy without the backing of the blown diffuser and ended up in the gravel in FP3. Maybe they’re hiding something for the race but they’re facing a real uphill battle. Maldonado, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo rounded out the top 10.

So, what awaits us in the race tomorrow? I can see McLaren being very strong if their winter testing race pace was anything to go by but don’t rule out Red Bull just yet – it’s unlike them to give up without a fight. With new tyres and less technical innovations this season it will be more about the strategists and the drivers. Schumacher could well be on for a podium while further back the Ferraris and Raikonnen won’t find carving up the field easy this season. Kimi will be given a baptism of fire on his return to the sport. My prediction is this:

1.Button (Vodafone McLaren Mercedes)

2. Hamilton (Vodafone McLaren Mercedes)

3. Schumacher (Mercedes AMG Petronas)

But as those of you who follow this blog will know, my predictions are woeful!

Finally, onto a very upsetting story indeed as the FA Cup clash between Bolton Wanderers and Tottenham Hotspur was abandoned tonight because England U21 international and Bolton player Fabrice Muamba collapsed in the middle of the game. I was instantly reminded of Marc Vivien-Foe’s tragic death after he collapsed on the football pitch playing for Cameroon. It’s something that puts the game and sport in general into perspective and has united the entire footballing community behind one cause. I have felt for a long time that clubs should have more stringent medicals and hopefully this incident will force those responsible to recognise that fact. Close analysis of the heart and brain should be taken every few months to ensure that a player is capable of playing top level football every week. Fabrice is a wonderful talent and I would like to echo one Bolton fan’s statement: “I don’t care if he never pulls on a Bolton shirt again as long as he pulls through”. Our thoughts are with Fabrice and his family at this time.

On that sombre note, I bid you goodnight. I shall see you tomorrow after the first Grand Prix of the year with full coverage, pictures and analysis of the show at Albert Park. It will be the written equivalent of “High Definition with Dolby 5.1 surround sound”.

Villas-Boas let down by Chelsea

So the inevitable has happened: Andre Villas-Boas has been sacked as Chelsea manager. Things never really worked out for him did they? It’s a strange feeling for me because I’m not a Chelsea fan but I do have very passionate views about how that team should be playing and I also think Villas-Boas is the most talented manager to emerge in the Premier League for many many years.

Andre Villas-Boas in happier times. Have Chelsea made a fatal mistake?

Villas-Boas’ achievements at Porto are well documented: going an entire season unbeaten, winning four trophies in the same season and playing some lovely stuff while doing so. He had a squad that understood the nuances of the game; who understood that modern football is akin to a game of chess and that the manager has to be prepared to outmanoeuvre  his counterpart at all times. He had a way of explaining his notoriously complex scout reports to his players and that is what was missing at Chelsea. It seems that Villas-Boas lacked the ability to connect to his players (maybe he didn’t fancy going out and sleeping with a girl or three?) and you get the impression that he was as isolated as a teacher at the front of an unruly year 9 class. His differences of opinion with Frank Lampard have been well documented and when you alienate one member of the ‘old school’ Chelsea then you alienate them all.

I think that’s my main issue with Chelsea at the moment. They haven’t adapted since Mourinho left at all. There is the excuse that no manager has been able to settle into the job long enough to change things but seriously, it’s been five years since Mourinho left and that squad won’t win the league. Terry, Lampard, Cole, Drogba and Malouda are all past it and should have been sold last season; keeping them there prevents improvement and is the reason why Chelsea have stagnated in recent years while Man City and Spurs have leapfrogged them. Mata was a good buy but he cannot turn a team around. If he is still having to play balls to a slow and misfiring Drogba and an off-colour Torres then it just won’t work. Torres is another sore point for me. His lack of form all started when Spain rushed him back to play in the World Cup and while it’s completely understandable that he would want to play every game, he was not integral to the success of the team and should have sat out the group stages. Why pundits still debate the cause of Torres’ lack of form is a mystery to me as it was plainly obvious that he was bereft of confidence to anyone who watched the World Cup. I always felt that Torres was a player who relied on being re-assured that he was brilliant and that if he felt he wasn’t all that then his performance would drop off the cliff. When he returned to Liverpool, he wasn’t given enough time to find that confidence on the training pitch before the season began. The £50 million that Abramovich paid Liverpool for him was scandalous (mind you, the £35 million for Carroll wasn’t exactly well spent) but I’m sure part of the reason Villas-Boas took the job was that he felt he could turn Torres’ Chelsea career around. In that respect he failed.

Chelsea and Abramovich let Villas-Boas down too. A lack of support in the transfer market (probably due to Torres) meant that Chelsea could not strengthen all the positions that they needed to which meant an over-reliance on the ‘old school’ which limited Villas-Boas’ creativity. He couldn’t play a fast-paced and slick passing game because he couldn’t trust the fitness of his older players. The way Terry has capitulated this season sums it all up – never before has he looked as shaky at the back as he had in the last few months and the team lacks a defensive partnership. They should be employing a formation where one wing back and one centre back stay back at all times while the other two push forward while Meireles (potentially a superb signing) cuts out anything heading into Chelsea’s half. I think had he been able to do things his way, Villas-Boas would have employed a tactic similar to that. The major issue though is how to remove that ‘old school’. Do you wait for them to retire, rewarding their loyalty to the club by letting them see their careers out there? Or do you force them out and risk alienating the fans – imagine the reaction if Terry was sold! People may point to United bringing Scholes out of retirement successfully but the ginger maestro did have six months to have a rest… Even Giggs, the king of longevity, plays once every two or three games, not every game like the elderly Chelsea players have to. Honestly, sometimes they are eerily reminiscent of the Chelsea pensioners.

No doubt Abramovich already has someone lined up for the post. The bookies have Benitez as favourite, while the fans will clamour for Mourinho and the fact that Abramovich has hired Di Matteo until the end of the season suggests that he is prepared to wait until Mourinho has conquered Spain before making an offer. Whoever the new man in charge is has to do a spot of spring cleaning and has to be strong enough to introduce a new philosophy to the club and stick to it no matter how much the fans protest.

Will Mourinho make a triumphant return to the Premier League?

In other news, Terry Butcher has declared the search for the next England manager ‘a farce’ – a point I am inclined to agree with. I am in favour of teams taking their time over selecting a new manager but when it is the national team, there has to be a certain amount of information distributed through the media – of which there has been none. All the reports are obviously saying that Redknapp is the man for the job but there has still been no approach. I’m sure the FA are working out how they can afford to pay for him and his backroom staff but all this is doing is adding to the unease amongst the fans and the players. With the squad losing their concentration in injury time on Wednesday, strong leadership will be the priority for Euro 2012. But before we all announce the arrival of King ‘Arry are we forgetting that a successful manager who relishes working with talented, young and determined players has just become available? May I make the case for Andre Villas-Boas. He could get England playing some lovely stuff and could mould the mish-mash of young talent that we have inherited at the moment into a cohesive unit. What’s more, with no billionaire chairman telling him who to sign, who to play and who to drop he will be able to do his own thing and as we saw with Porto, that can be devastatingly successful. Something to think about…

Reflective Celebrations for Zambia

Be honest, who had Zambia down to win the African Cup of Nations at the start of the tournament? No-one? I thought they’d win one game or maybe two at a push but this victory goes beyond the imagination of any Hollywood screenwriter. In fact, Zambia went unbeaten throughout the tournament with only draws against Libya and in the final last night to taint their perfect record. What makes this success more special is the history of Zambian football.

In 1993 the Zambian football team were on their way to play a World Cup qualifier against Senegal when they landed for their second refuelling stop at Libreville in Gabon. The team was young, talented and growing in confidence. They had already impressed at the 1988 Olympic Games and looked set to make a mark on African football. The plane had already displayed warning signs of engine failure but the pilot continued with the journey – this would prove to be fatal. Shortly after take-off from Libreville, the left engine caught fire but the pilot, led by a faulty warning light and suffering from fatigue, shut down the right engine causing the aircraft to plunge into the water. No-one survived.

During the 1994 African Cup of Nations, Zambia’s hurriedly assembled new team battled their way through to the final against Nigeria (although there were less teams in the tournament back then) and prepared to bring the trophy home for their fallen colleagues. The match started well and they took the lead after three minutes but as Nigeria grew into the game, their confidence grew and they ran out 2-1 winners. Despite this, Zambia’s players could hold their heads high and returned to Zambia as national heroes.

The triumphant Zambian players salute the heroes of '93

When the Zambian team of 2012 arrived for this year’s tournament, they must have felt the usual pre-tournament mix of excitement, trepidation and pressure but also something new: expectation. The Zambian people expected a talented squad to qualify from a fairly easy group and with less big teams in the competition this year, there was every chance of a quarter-final spot. The players would have dreamed of reaching the final at Libreville but to them it must have always been a dream for there were better sides in the competition than them.

They actually played some beautiful football at times during this tournament. They beat Senegal with consummate ease in their first group game before an entertaining 2-2 draw with Libya in a game that they really should have won. That ensured that they had virtually qualified by the time they played co-hosts Equatorial Guinea in the last group game. Even at this stage though, the chances of actually winning the cup were very slim. That said, the first game that made me sit up and take notice of the Zambians was their quarter-final game against Sudan. Sudan were also growing in confidence and had run Ivory Coast very close indeed in their group match. Zambia though, tore Sudan apart with a brilliant performance from their talisman Christopher Katongo and they had finally announced their arrival onto the tournament stage.

Their semi-final opponents were my tip to win the competition: Ghana. The Ghanaians boasted a squad full of top European level players such as the Ayew brothers and Sunderland’s Asamoah Gyan. Zambia knew that they were just one win from an emotional return to Libreville. The game started badly for the Chipolopolo when they conceded a penalty in the opening minutes. Gyan stepped up confidently but the spot-kick was tame and was easily saved by Zambia’s goalkeeper, Kennedy Mweene. Mweene had been very good throughout the tournament but this night was to be his finest hour. He made save after save and almost everything about his performance was spot-on – from the positioning down to his reflexes – and they certainly wouldn’t be in the final if it wasn’t for him. Despite Ghana pressing they couldn’t find a way past Mweene and Zambia capitalised on a stretched Black Star defence when Emmanuel Mayuka rifled a shot past Adam Kwarasey to send Zambia into their first final since 1994.

The rank outsiders now faced the tournament favourites Ivory Coast in Libreville, just a few hundreds yards from where the team of ’93 lost their lives. The game was always going to be an emotional affair but if Zambia were going to win then they would have to keep their focus and work together as a unit. Ivory Coast’s squad probably needs no introduction to most of you with players such as Didier Drogba, Saloman Kalou, Gervinho, Cheik Tiote and the Toure brothers amongst others. The match itself was an entertaining if somewhat nervy affair until the tension reached its climax in the 69th minute when Ivory Coast were awarded a penalty for a foul on Gervinho. Up stepped Didier Drogba, one of the best finishers in world football, only to blaze the ball over the bar from 12 yards.

Ivory Coast are renowned for bottling it on the big occasions and from then on you could only see Zambia winning it. The crucial goal didn’t come in normal time, nor in extra time so the 2012 African Cup of Nations went down to the lottery of penalties. What a marathon lottery it was too – 18 penalties were taken and 15 of them were converted – while it fell to Gervinho to become the Ivorian Gareth Southgate after he missed at 7-7 to allow Stophira Sunzu to cooly slot home the winning penalty to send the entire nation into euphoria. It was an impressive win for Zambia, not only have they completed the work started by the ’88 Olympic squad but also they have exorcised the demons of the events in Libreville in 1993. The country can now remember Libreville not just as a scene of tragedy but as the scene of Zambia’s greatest footballing triumph.

The Zambian players celebrate their penalty success

As for Ivory Coast, where do they go now? They were statistically the best team in the competition winning five games and drawing only one (the final) and not conceding from open play in the entire competition. This was their best chance of victory too, they had an easy route through to the final and their biggest test look set to come from Ghana. That’s without mentioning the fact that they had several chances to win the final, not least of which was Drogba’s penalty. There needs to be a thorough investigation as to why once again they failed to bring home the goods when they have arguably the strongest squad in Africa. More importantly, the 2012 African Cup of Nations will be remembered as a brilliant tournament. It breathed new life into a tired competition, there were upsets galore and the football on show was entertaining even if the state of the pitches sometimes left a lot to be desired. Lets just hope that next year, the games will actually be shown on terrestrial TV!