It’s the semi-final stage of the year’s first Grand Slam and I thought now would be a good time to review the predictions I made almost a fortnight ago.
On the men’s side, it’s not gone well if you’ve staked money on my predictions (why would you?!) I can only apologise. I predicted Tsonga to challenge the top 4 but he was embarrassed by Japanese star Kei Nishikori. Let’s not even discuss Raonic,my outside bet, who was dismantled by a Lleyton Hewitt who was only in the main draw by virtue of a wildcard. Yes Hewitt is a home favourite and an ex Grand Slam winner and former World Number One but his time has been and I was extremely disappointed that Raonic did not cement his place as a major force to be reckoned with by convincingly beating Hewitt – as he should have done with ease. Still, at least that gave Hewitt the confidence to roll back the years and challenge Djokovic for one set. I’m also disappointed that Tomic did not challenge Federer a bit harder because he had been impressive from the start of the tournament.
What about those that are left? Well, surprisingly the player in the best form is our very own Andy Murray. He’s been playing with a confidence we rarely see from him. There’s been no slump in the body language and no tired looking shots, just great shot placement and a little bit of flair. That being said, he’s not really faced the creme de la creme of world tennis so far. Tsonga would’ve proved a worthy challenge to him but he’s certainly not faced anyone capable of hitting the ball as hard or as accurate as Djokovic. That could be his downfall but for now he should be concentrating on building on that confidence that he’s gathered throughout the tournament. He can only beat what is put in front of him and he’s done that with ease, which is very encouraging. Djokovic has also gained confidence as the tournament has worn on and seems to be on the same sort of level that he was at during the US Open. It’s a shame that one of Murray and Djokovic will not make the final as they really both deserve to be there.
I also said that Roger Federer could have a great tournament and so far his progress has been serene. No real scares along the way and sublime performances against Del Potro and Tomic really have helped his cause. Lest we forget he has also had the benefit of a walkover against Andreas Beck in the second round. That extra day off could give Federer the extra energy he needs to get through to the final although in recent years he has had a habit of choking in the last few rounds at the Grand Slams. He is also facing the constant thorn in his side that is Rafael Nadal who will surely be out for revenge after the humiliation he suffered at the O2 Arena in November. I said that Nadal would struggle here and he’s proved me wrong. He always manages to battle through and he’s faced some harder opponents than his closest rivals. He looked a little vulnerable against Berdych and Federer might just have too much for him this time around but you never know with Rafa. Worryingly, it says a lot for the state of mens tennis at the moment that the top four players occupy all of the semi-final slots.
On the women’s side, I’m pleased to say that my predictions were pretty close. Wozniacki struggled and has finally had to yield her Number 1 ranking. Clijsters had a massive scare against Li Na before finding a second wind and should be knocked out tomorrow by an ever improving Azarenka, who has conducted her business in this tournament with almost stealth-like fashion. Sharapova finally got her game together against a tough (and quite attractive!) opponent in Sabine Lisicki but as I predicted, Kvitova is the one to beat. She really deserves to be World Number 1 at the moment and I would like to see her go on and win this. Big names like Serena Williams and Jelena Jankovic were never really in any position to win this week but the big disappointment for me was Sam Stosur. I felt this could have been her year – home support, winning the last Grand Slam of the season in 2011 and decent form all should have propelled her into the latter stages of the tournament but instead she fluffed her lines and fell at the first hurdle.
Men’s Semi-Finals Preview
Nadal vs Federer
So, here we go again. This will be the 27th competitive meeting between the 2 players widely regarded as being the greatest to ever play the game. Nadal leads the head-to-head 17 to 9 and you can expect the TV stations to whack that stat out a fair few times in the build up to the match. A rivalry shouldn’t be compelling if there’s been that many meetings between the two players but this one gets even more fascinating with age. Part of that is down to the fact that no two matches are anything close to similar with Federer and Nadal; they are always trying to outfox each other and to try something new because they both know each other’s games inside and out. Then you have the clash of styles – Federer with his artistry and pure textbook strokeplay against the power, resilience and fiendish spin of Nadal – that makes these two players an absolute privilege to watch. This time though, the fire has been stoked even further. We had Federer’s destruction of Nadal at the O2 which I mentioned earlier but in the build up to the Open we saw the first signs of a personal conflict between the two greats when Nadal accused Federer of basically not manning up and using his influence to make the ATP World Tour calendar a bit more manageable. All this points to another incredible contest out on Rod Laver Arena, one that will go the distance. It really could go either way but I really do fancy Federer to just scrape by.
Prediction: Federer in 5 sets
Murray vs Djokovic
The World’s best tennis player against the perennial choker – no contest right? Well maybe not this time. Murray has been playing sublime stuff throughout these two weeks and has been really unlucky that he has to face the only other player who has matched him so far. The pressure will be on Djokovic though; he’s the World Number 1, he’s the guy who had possibly the greatest season in living memory in 2011, he is going for the Grand Slam (winning all four Grand Slams in a row) and has to defend his ranking points. I think it’ll be a lot tighter than last year’s final but I’m going to play conservative and go with the form books and opt for a Djokovic win. Murray has a very strong chance here though.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4 sets
Women’s Semi-Finals Preview
Kvitova vs Sharapova
Petra Kvitova could be the new World Number 1 by the time that this tournament is over… but then again so could Sharapova, which gives this match an added significance as major ranking points are on the line. These two are big hitters and although Sharapova can give as good as she gets, she found it tough going against Kvitova in the Wimbledon final last year. Kvitova looked impressive then although I’m sure many people thought it would just be a flash in the pan, but thankfully Petra didn’t see it like that and looks set for a second Grand Slam final as I can’t see Sharapova troubling her too much.
Prediction: Kvitova in straight sets
Azarenka vs Clijsters
As I mentioned earlier, Victoria Azarenka has very much been the forgotten woman of this tournament. She has taken care of all of her opponents with cold-hearted ease and should do the same against a weakened Clijsters. Kim looked shaky against Li Na but somehow came through and beat Wozniacki fairly comfortably yesterday but Azarenka does not have any real injury concerns and is in much better form than either Li Na or Wozniacki. It’s hard to see Kim winning this one.
Prediction: Azarenka in straight sets
So there we go, a little round up for you all and some predictions that will probably be miles wide of the mark but I hope you’ve all had fun. I’ll see you at the weekend for a Sharapova vs Clijsters and Nadal vs Murray double bill 😉
I’m also on twitter @tom_davidson