Australian Open Catch-Up

It’s the semi-final stage of the year’s first Grand Slam and I thought now would be a good time to review the predictions I made almost a fortnight ago.

On the men’s side, it’s not gone well if you’ve staked money on my predictions (why would you?!) I can only apologise. I predicted Tsonga to challenge the top 4 but he was embarrassed by Japanese star Kei Nishikori. Let’s not even discuss Raonic,my outside bet, who was dismantled by a Lleyton Hewitt who was only in the main draw by virtue of a wildcard. Yes Hewitt is a home favourite and an ex Grand Slam winner and former World Number One but his time has been and I was extremely disappointed that Raonic did not cement his place as a major force to be reckoned with by convincingly beating Hewitt – as he should have done with ease. Still, at least that gave Hewitt the confidence to roll back the years and challenge Djokovic for one set. I’m also disappointed that Tomic did not challenge Federer a bit harder because he had been impressive from the start of the tournament.

What about those that are left? Well, surprisingly the player in the best form is our very own Andy Murray. He’s been playing with a confidence we rarely see from him. There’s been no slump in the body language and no tired looking shots, just great shot placement  and a little bit of flair. That being said, he’s not really faced the creme de la creme of world tennis so far. Tsonga would’ve proved a worthy challenge to him but he’s certainly not faced anyone capable of hitting the ball as hard or as accurate as Djokovic. That could be his downfall but for now he should be concentrating on building on that confidence that he’s gathered throughout the tournament. He can only beat what is put in front of him and he’s done that with ease, which is very encouraging. Djokovic has also gained confidence as the tournament has worn on and seems to be on the same sort of level that he was at during the US Open. It’s a shame that one of Murray and Djokovic will not make the final as they really both deserve to be there.

I also said that Roger Federer could have a great tournament and so far his progress has been serene. No real scares along the way and sublime performances against Del Potro and Tomic really have helped his cause. Lest we forget he has also had the benefit of a walkover against Andreas Beck in the second round. That extra day off could give Federer the extra energy he needs to get through to the final although in recent years he has had a habit of choking in the last few rounds at the Grand Slams. He is also facing the constant thorn in his side that is Rafael Nadal who will surely be out for revenge after the humiliation he suffered at the O2 Arena in November. I said that Nadal would struggle here and he’s proved me wrong. He always manages to battle through and he’s faced some harder opponents than his closest rivals. He looked a little vulnerable against Berdych and Federer might just have too much for him this time around but you never know with Rafa. Worryingly, it says a lot for the state of mens tennis at the moment that the top four players occupy all of the semi-final slots.

On the women’s side, I’m pleased to say that my predictions were pretty close. Wozniacki struggled and has finally had to yield her Number 1 ranking. Clijsters had a massive scare against Li Na before finding a second wind and should be knocked out tomorrow by an ever improving Azarenka, who has conducted her business in this tournament with almost stealth-like fashion. Sharapova finally got her game together against a tough (and quite attractive!) opponent in Sabine Lisicki but as I predicted, Kvitova is the one to beat. She really deserves to be World Number 1 at the moment and I would like to see her go on and win this. Big names like Serena Williams and Jelena Jankovic were never really in any position to win this week but the big disappointment for me was Sam Stosur. I felt this could have been her year – home support, winning the last Grand Slam of the season in 2011 and decent form all should have propelled her into the latter stages of the tournament but instead she fluffed her lines and fell at the first hurdle.

Men’s Semi-Finals Preview

Friends and rivals but which one will come out on top on Thursday night?

Nadal vs Federer

So, here we go again. This will be the 27th competitive meeting between the 2 players widely regarded as being the greatest to ever play the game. Nadal leads the head-to-head 17 to 9 and you can expect the TV stations to whack that stat out a fair few times in the build up to the match. A rivalry shouldn’t be compelling if there’s been that many meetings between the two players but this one gets even more fascinating with age. Part of that is down to the fact that no two matches are anything close to similar with Federer and Nadal; they are always trying to outfox each other and to try something new because they both know each other’s games inside and out. Then you have the clash of styles – Federer with his artistry and pure textbook strokeplay against the power, resilience and fiendish spin of Nadal – that makes these two players an absolute privilege to watch. This time though, the fire has been stoked even further. We had Federer’s destruction of Nadal at the O2 which I mentioned earlier but in the build up to the Open we saw the first signs of a personal conflict between the two greats when Nadal accused Federer of basically not manning up and using his influence to make the ATP World Tour calendar a bit more manageable. All this points to another incredible contest out on Rod Laver Arena, one that will go the distance. It really could go either way but I really do fancy Federer to just scrape by.

Prediction: Federer in 5 sets

Murray vs Djokovic

He's no Tim Henman but could this be his year?

The World’s best tennis player against the perennial choker – no contest right? Well maybe not this time. Murray has been playing sublime stuff throughout these two weeks and has been really unlucky that he has to face the only other player who has matched him so far. The pressure will be on Djokovic though; he’s the World Number 1, he’s the guy who had possibly the greatest season in living memory in 2011, he is going for the Grand Slam (winning all four Grand Slams in a row) and has to defend his ranking points. I think it’ll be a lot tighter than last year’s final but I’m going to play conservative and go with the form books and opt for a Djokovic win. Murray has a very strong chance here though.

Prediction: Djokovic in 4 sets

Women’s Semi-Finals Preview

Kvitova vs Sharapova

Petra Kvitova - A new force in women's tennis?

Petra Kvitova could be the new World Number 1 by the time that this tournament is over… but then again so could Sharapova, which gives this match an added significance as major ranking points are on the line. These two are big hitters and although Sharapova can give as good as she gets, she found it tough going against Kvitova in the Wimbledon final last year. Kvitova looked impressive then although I’m sure many people thought it would just be a flash in the pan, but thankfully Petra didn’t see it like that and looks set for a second Grand Slam final as I can’t see Sharapova troubling her too much.

Prediction: Kvitova in straight sets

Azarenka vs Clijsters

Victoria Azarenka, the stealthy assassin at this year's Australian Open

As I mentioned earlier, Victoria Azarenka has very much been the forgotten woman of this tournament. She has taken care of all of her opponents with cold-hearted ease and should do the same against a weakened Clijsters. Kim looked shaky against Li Na but somehow came through and beat Wozniacki fairly comfortably yesterday but Azarenka does not have any real injury concerns and is in much better form than either Li Na or Wozniacki. It’s hard to see Kim winning this one.

Prediction: Azarenka in straight sets

So there we go, a little round up for you all and some predictions that will probably be miles wide of the mark but I hope you’ve all had fun. I’ll see you at the weekend for a Sharapova vs Clijsters and Nadal vs Murray double bill 😉

I’m also on twitter @tom_davidson

Australian Open Preview

It’s almost time for the first major sporting event of 2012: The Australian Open. Tennis in 2011 was all about one man, Novak Djokovic, who finally raised his game to the level he always hinted at being able to reach. The question now is can he stay there? Nadal and Federer have been able to do so for years but I don’t really class Djokovic in those upper echelons of the sport – not yet anyway.  I’m not taking anything away from what was an incredible season but I feel that 2012 could be a lot tougher for him; he’s the one being studied for weaknesses.

On the women’s side, it looks like being a battle to stay fit for many of the world’s top players. Caroline Wozniacki and Kim Clijsters have already had injury scares while former World Number 1 Venus Williams has withdrawn from the tournament altogether. That leaves a very open field with many potential winners such as Petra Kvitova, Li Na or home favourite Samantha Stosur. Other big names are likely to struggle as Sharapova is carrying a knock and Serena Williams has a severe lack of match practice having only made a comeback 2 weeks ago.

So then, let’s preview the likely contenders for the men’s and women’s titles.

What the top male tennis players in the world are competing for

Novak Djokovic

As I mentioned earlier, he is the man to beat. He had the finest tennis season since Roger Federer in 2005 although he did wane towards the end of the season with a disappointing World Tour Finals in London. He is the favourite although the odds flatter him slightly as his form was a worry at the end of 2011. If he starts to find his feet in Melbourne then he is a seriously dangerous prospect.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal has been inconsistent of late. He had a decent run in Abu Dhabi before being beaten, quite soundly by David Ferrer. He looked as though he was relying on sheer determination to get him through the Davis Cup and the fact that he’s taking a break from tennis after the Australian Open says all you need to know about his energy levels. He’ll give 100% and push his body to the limit but he will probably find this a difficult tournament.

Roger Federer

The Swiss maestro seems to be reaching the form he once held. His dismantling of Nadal at the World Tour Finals was his best performance since he destroyed Andy Roddick in the semis of the Australian Open in 2007. If he gets anywhere near that level of performance then he will be almost unstoppable. This could be a great tournament for Federer if the draw is kind enough to him.

Andy Murray

The British number one looked impressive in Brisbane where he won his first title of 2012 albeit against a weak field. He will hope to use that as a springboard into Melbourne but sadly I don’t think he’s quite there yet. I wouldn’t rule out another final appearance but his game isn’t quite at the level of Federer and Djokovic.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

The most improved player from 2011 has a decent shot at a good run in Melbourne. On his day he came embarrass any player on the Tour and won the final in Qatar against Monfils very convincingly and should be one to watch out for. Already reached the final here of course and I wouldn’t put it past him to do so again.

Milos Raonic

The ATP World Tour Newcomer of the year for 2011 has already started 2012 in winning style having beaten Tipsarevic in India and not dropping serve once throughout the tournament. He’s currently 25th in the world rankings, having been 156th in the world at this time last year. He’s destined for a bright future and cannot be underestimated in Australia.

 

Which lucky lady will get her hands on this?

Caroline Wozniacki

The World Number 1 has been more of the bridesmaid than the bride when it comes to Grand Slams. She’s very consistent all year round but has never overcome the final hurdle at the big ones. With an injury to her wrist, she’ll find it difficult this year but perhaps take encouragement in the fact that all her rivals are struggling for fitness as well. With a hugely competitive women’s section, she can’t simply rely on the fact that she’s the best player in the world to take her through.

Petra Kvitova 

Before Wimbledon, very few had heard of this Czech star but she won over the crowds at SW19 and has since risen to the lofty heights of World Number 2, with the very distinct possibility that she will dethrone Wozniacki before the start of the Open. Very dangerous, especially it seems that she could be the only injury free threat in the draw.

Kim Clijsters

The defending champion is another who has been hampered by injury. She tweaked her hip last Friday but has played down fears of it hampering her progress through the tournament. It’s hard to see how it won’t affect her though as the advised recovery time leaves her very little time for practice.

Maria Sharapova

Sharapova has history at this event having won it in 2008 and that could be crucial when it comes to beating lesser experienced players. She too is lacking in fitness but she always seems to go well in the Grand Slams and she is overdue a big tournament win.

Serena Williams

It seems as though as soon as something starts to improve for Serena Williams, she suffers a setback. Just as she was getting back into life on the Tour following an awful end to 2010 and start to 2011, she suffers an ankle injury at the Brisbane tournament, leaving her with a major problem going into the Australian Open. Her sister has already pulled out so it seems likely that we won’t see a Williams name on the trophy this year.

 

The tournament starts on January 16th and runs until January 29th.