Euro 2012: The Knockout Stages

Well what an intriguing tournament it’s been so far. The football has been, on the most part, excellent and we’ve seen a number of shocks which have really spiced up the quarter final stage.

Karagounis has been instrumental for the Greeks during these championships.

Group A was always going to be the most open of the groups but few would have been brave enough to predict that Greece and the Czechs would make it through. It seemed that Russia and Poland were destined for the knockout stages but the Czechs somehow managed to recover from their 4-1 drubbing at the hands of the Russians and record two straight wins. The Greeks (and as anyone who read my group stage preview will know, I landed the Greeks in the sweepstake) scraped through by the skin of their teeth, recording just one win from their three group games.

Germany are favourites to win the tournament after impressing in the group stage

The reward for the Czechs is a tricky tie against Portugal tonight. Portugal were the dark horse in Group B and overcame Denmark after a thriller and beat the Netherlands fairly comfortably before pushing the otherwise dominant Germans all the way. Germany will face Greece in their quarter final and the game will have political connotations after the relationship between Greece and Germany has soured during the Eurozone crisis. Germany will be heavy favourites since they are the only team in the competition with a 100% record. I predicted that they’d be ruthlessly efficient and that’s what they were, winning every game by one goal to serenly progress from the ‘Group of Death’. As for the Dutch, they will go home and analyse just why they failed to fulfill their massive potential again.

Torres will have to propel this Spain side forward

Spain came to Poland and Ukraine looking to dazzle Europe with tiki-taka before claiming a hat-trick of major international competitions. Sadly, like France in 2002, they’ve disappointed so far. Yes, they’ve played well and gave the Irish a lesson but when the pressure was on against Italy they seemed to suffer from nerves. The re-emergence of Fernando Torres has given the Spanish a focal point but I’m still not confident that they’ll come away with the trophy. Italy just about made it through to the quarter finals after Prandelli’s tactical gambles started to pay off. Much of their success is based on keeping a clean sheet and striking on the counter but against sides such as Germany, that tactic will be hard to carry out. Croatia actually impressed the most in Group C. They looked comfortable going forward and pushed Spain and Italy very close. They’re just short of one or two good players in defence otherwise they’d have all the makings of a top-notch side.

Rooney’s served his ban and will be looking to terrorise the defences of Europe

Spain vs France is perhaps the stand-out tie of the quarter finals. Both sides have a lot to prove after disappointing efforts in the group stage. I think Spain have enough about them to quell the French goal threat and should progress but they can’t be as complacent as they’ve been up until now. On their day (well, against Ukraine) the French looked very good indeed and I think they’ll prefer being the underdogs for that one. England vs Italy looks like another mouth-watering morsel. Both sides are evenly matched, both are looking to confound pre-tournament expectations and both will look to play a direct, counter-attacking style. England have the benefit of Wayne Rooney returning from suspension and immediately getting in amongst the goals while Italy will focus on Di Natale and Balotelli with an onus on De Rossi and Pirlo in midfield stopping any potential England attack. It’ll be one for that tacticians but whoever wins has to have a lot of belief going into the semis…

So, after my predictions so far have been, in typical style, miles wide of the mark I’m going to do the only logical thing and give some more:

Quarter Final 1

Czech Republic vs Portugal

Winner: Portugal

Quarter Final 2

Germany vs Greece

Winner: Germany

Quarter Final 3

Spain vs France

Winner: Spain

Quarter Final 4

England vs Italy

Winner: England

Semi Final 1

Portugal vs Spain

Winner: Spain

Semi Final 2

Germany vs England

Winner: Germany (on penalties, naturally)

Final

Spain vs Germany

Winner: Germany

If that happens it’ll be a miracle judging from how far out I was in my group stage predictions but it’s probably the most logical outcome. Football tends to disobey logic at every convenience so here’s toasting a Greece vs Italy final!

Redknapp Sacked by Spurs

I didn’t expect to be having to write this blog today. The news is filtering through that Harry Redknapp has been sacked by Spurs after failing to guide the side to Champions League football last season. There have been rumours of trouble for a couple of weeks now after Tottenham suffered a horrendous slump in form towards the end of the season, going from a clear third place to finishing a close fourth in the space of three months.

Harry Redknapp is left to ponder his next career move after being shown the exit at Spurs.

Of course much of that lack of form was brought about because of off-the-field issues. Firstly, ‘Arry had his day in court fighting charges of tax evasion before his well publicised courtship of the England manager’s post. He gambled his entire career on getting that job but sadly the gamble appears to have backfired. His behaviour over the past couple of months has been getting stranger and stranger as he veered from denying and then confirming his interest in the England job, stating that he would most likely sell most of Tottenham’s best players and then just this week saying that he wasn’t going to resign his post at White Hart Lane, basically offering Spurs the chance to sack him.

Those who know me will know that I’m not Redknapp’s biggest fan. I think that he’s over-rated having spent vast amounts of money for a moderate amount of success. That being said, I will defend his record at Spurs vehemently. He has galvanised a team that a few seasons ago looked like they were going to languish in mid-table and has turned them into genuine top four contenders. I think Spurs will find it difficult to replace him and tonight’s events could end up being a disaster for both parties. I can’t wait to hear what he’s got to say on the matter and where his next move lays – maybe a spell abroad?

David Moyes could be Redknapp’s replacement.

So where do Tottenham turn now? Well the early runaway favourite is Everton’s David Moyes. Moyes is one of my favourite managers in the Premier League and the complete opposite to Redknapp. He’s shy, thinks before he speaks and has achieved minor miracles at Everton on a shoestring budget. He guided them to their staple 7th place in the league (above arch-rivals Liverpool) and has got them playing some lovely stuff. I just think that Spurs will be simply too different to Everton. Moyes is in a good place at Goodison Park and we’ve seen how managers who are nicely bedded at their club leave and end up being failures at their new club (Hodgson at Liverpool, Hughes at City etc…) I can see Moyes ruining his chances of the Man United job (the one he really wants) with a terrible spell at Spurs but on the other hand it could be the thrust into the big time that he deserves.

I think he’d relish the chance to work with the young, talented team that Tottenham have and he might even be able to persuade a few of his Everton boys to follow him down to London. I’m just not convinced that Moyes would want to leave Everton yet. I’m sure he sees them as deserving of a place in the top four and won’t leave until they get there. Whatever happens, this story has massive implications for the start of the season and Spurs fans will be hoping an appointment is made swiftly.

The Premier League Can No Longer Lay Claim to Being the Best League in the World

For a long time now there has been an arrogance in English football that the English Premier League is the best league in the world. The clubs, the players, the media and the fans all are entirely convinced that the football they are seeing is better than anything else out there. Yet, with only one English club left in any European competition, can that still be the case?

The logo depicts itself as a beacon to the rest of the footballing world, but just how true is that?

There was a time when that was certainly true. The days of Ronaldo, Tevez and Rooney at United and Drogba, Terry and Lampard all in form at Chelsea proved that no-one could touch the Premier League. In addition, there were Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs sides who were improving all the while and a tightness around the mid-table. All this culminated in the 2008 Champions League final in Moscow between, you guessed it, Man United and Chelsea. The tight 1-1 draw followed by United edging the penalty shootout was supposed to reflect the fact that at the pinnacle of English football the defences are rock solid, the midfield is a fountain of creativity and the strikers are capable of the most spectacular goals. Of course what we know now is that Premier League football has a habit of being defensive and at times desperate.

This isn’t a problem confined to the Premier League though. Serie A, once that brilliant and unpredictable league that everyone tucked into their Sunday lunch with, now is a shadow of its former self. Where the best players in the world once roamed, only a few really top class players remain and the game is still trying to forget the unfortunate match-fixing scandal of a few year’s ago. I’m not saying that English clubs are going to get embroiled in anything like that but a look north of the border at what has happened to Rangers might just provide a wake up call to many of the teams. If just one big club goes under and there is an outflow of the foreign owners, what will happen then?

I’ve been banging on to anyone who’ll listen that the Spanish became the home of the best football on the planet as soon as Real Madrid and Barcelona opened their pockets and brought players such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Kaka, Alexis Sanchez, Fabregas and Xabi Alonso over to La Liga. Having the three best players in the world for the last few seasons playing in La Liga has raised the entire standard of Spanish football. Por ejemplo (full of surprises aren’t I?) just look at Atheltic Bilbao’s brutal dismantling of Manchester United a few weeks ago. United, leading the Premier League and supposedly England’s best club, were outplayed and out-thought both at home and away. Bilbao played some scintillating stuff while United very often resorted to long ball tactics – not exactly dynamic is it? Meanwhile, Bilbao have tonight secured their place in the semi-finals of the Europa League with another impressive win over Schalke. This from a team who three years ago played a friendly against my local team, Colchester United and were very much cannon fodder for the bigger clubs in Spain until recently. The real issue though is that we’ve lost quality from the Premier League. People can point to Van Persie,Aguero and Silva but none of them have the impact that Ronaldo did at United or that Henry did at Arsenal. In Ronaldo and Henry, the Premier League had its first two players who could potentially be labelled in the ‘greatest ever’ category but inevitably they had to move on at some point and the Premier League just hasn’t been able to lure a player of that calibre since.

Fernando Torres' lack of form symbolises the plight of the Premier League

That has led to the league becoming tighter and in some people’s eyes better. I think it’s great to see teams like Newcastle and Spurs becoming genuine fourth place contenders but that sort of system has been in place for years in Spain. Valencia, Villareal, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla regularly fought it out for the European places over the past few seasons. I think another issue with the Premier League is that we have a lot of big names over here, on big pay packets but they’re not in their peak like they are over in Spain. Torres, Terry, Ferdinand, Berbatov, Drogba and Gerrard would have been the most desirable collectibles in the Panini sticker album a few seasons ago but now they’re out of form and looking old. I know that most people say that the only reason La Liga is so popular now is down to Messi and Ronaldo. But if you look beyond them, beyond Real Madrid and Barcelona even and you can still see real talent. There’s Iker Muniain at Bilbao, Falcao at Atletico Madrid, Roberto Soldado at Valencia, Jeremy Toulalan, Ruud Van Nistelrooy and Julio Baptista at Malaga and Jesus Navas at Sevilla. Almost every team has a talisman who could make the jump over to anywhere in European football and I can’t really see someone like Tim Cahill doing that – sorry Everton fans. The depth of the league isn’t quite up to the level of late 80s/early 90s Serie A but it’s getting there.

Lionel Messi, just one of the many reasons why La Liga is so entertaining

The style of football is also much prettier on the eye over there. I’m very much someone who’d appreciate a 0-0 draw full of attacking, quick passing football instead of a 2-0 win that was claimed through dull passages of play and physical football. People fawn over Barcelona’s style but watch Revista de La Liga and the majority of teams play football like that, it’s just that Barcelona do it better. The closest we have to that here are Arsenal, Swansea and Man City but only when they’re on form. I’ve just lost faith in the English game and am genuinely fearful that if we get far enough to play Spain at Euro 2012 that we’ll be completely slaughtered in front of millions of viewers. I’d dare say Germany would do the same – the Bundesliga is becoming a cracking little league too. Dortmund have a young, brilliant team while Bayern are a match for Barcelona and Madrid for the title of best all-round unit.

I’m not saying that the Premier League is the worst league in European football, far from it actually, but we just need to stop this attitude that just because our league is the richest in the world, it doesn’t make it the best. Chelsea, Man City and United can have all the millions in the world but without a player to match Messi then they might as well have nothing. Coming onto Barcelona I’d like to say that they were an absolute joy to watch the other night against Milan. Messi, Xavi and Iniesta will be remembered as three Gods of the game. It’s also important to remember that they beat a strong Milan side without 20 goal a season man David Villa and without a recognised left-back. Chelsea will give it their best, as they always do, but I fully expect them to be taught a footballing lesson by the Catalan giants. Those four years since Moscow must feel like an awful long time ago….

The Return of the Prodigal Son

Tevez helped City to a 2-1 win last night but can the events of the past really be forgotten?

What a difference a month makes. Four weeks ago and Carlos Tevez had just returned to Manchester after his lengthy AWOL period in Argentina. With his tail between his legs, he made a grovelling apology to the club, the fans and manager Roberto Mancini. Last night Tevez returned to action, ironically coming off the bench, and set up Samir Nasri for the winning goal against Chelsea. It was the final step of Tevez’s reintegration with his team and the talk is now of Tevez powering City to their first Premier League title. My question is, do they really need him?

I can’t imagine many of the City first team welcoming Tevez back with open arms after he deserted them last September. That tension permeated the club and may have cost them against Swansea a couple of weeks ago. Tevez is not a different person, he is just back because he realised that no other club could afford to take him away from the Etihad. He needs to prove that he is willing to give 100% for the club, he needs to show passion and commitment whenever he steps on the pitch. I’d still treat him as if he’s ready to throw his toys out of the pram at any second and if it does then Mancini’s big gamble will have backfired spectacularly; what’s more is that any whiff of conflict between Tevez and his manager or teammates and the momentum swings back in United’s favour. Mancini is going to have to manage a very delicate balancing act here.

Don’t get me wrong, Tevez is a great player and any team would want him on their books but City coped perfectly well without him for the last six months.  They became a solid unit and despite losing the lead in the title race, they were still favourites to be crowned Champions come May. Mario Balotelli was finally getting his head down and putting in some important performances, will he now be left to rot on the bench while Tevez steals all the glory? Will Tevez himself be happy to be used in a rotation system when that was what got him all riled up six months ago?

We’ve seen clubs throw away their title chances time and time again: Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea and even Manchester United. The most common factor in their decline was over-tinkering and Manchester City could easily find themselves going the same way. Aguero, Balotelli and Tevez could in theory fill the slots in a 4-3-3 but City have been brilliant with their fluid 4-5-1 all season and who then would Mancini drop from the midfield in order to placate Tevez? The little Argentinian (Tevez, not Aguero) isn’t even at full fitness yet and a yard of pace could be the difference between 1 point and 3; with United looking so strong at the moment, every point counts.

Expect Mancini to go greyer before the end of the season

Yet Mancini could still turn Tevez into the most important player in the team. If I was Roberto, I’d use Tevez as a distraction. Take last night for example, the cameras were focused on Tevez even if as much as coughed and no-0ne remembers Aguero’s equalising penalty as well as the number of other chances he had. If you have the threat of Tevez on the bench, teams will have to come up with a plan to stop him just in case he comes on – that removes time for them to be focusing on your actual starting XI. Let Aguero and Balotelli get the early goals and bring Tevez on as an impact sub. If he impresses, give him a start here and there. Simple.

What interested me though about last night, and gave an insight into how little Mancini trusts Tevez’s fitness right now, was when he substituted Balotelli for Gareth Barry at half-time. You’ve got a world-class striker on the bench who is raring to go and he brings on a central midfielder. Maybe it was used to show Tevez that his road to regular football won’t be an easy one to walk but clearly there is still some resentment from Mancini to Tevez. The fans won’t forget what he did and unless he starts banging in the goals, they’ll be on his back straightaway.

Tevez doesn’t really change anything in regards to where the Premier League trophy is heading at the end of this season. The deciding game will still be City vs United on Monday 30th April but he could provide that extra talent that gives City the advantage. Conversely, he could just decide that Manchester is not really his scene and head off back to Argentina again. City have to face Stoke, Arsenal and Newcastle away before the end of the season while United have a much kinder run-in. Sir Alex Ferguson will be eyeing the return of Tevez intently, looking for any sign of trouble that he can exploit. Tevez cannot expect to waltz back into first team football and the affections of the City fans and Mancini has to ensure that he stays in control, that the players do not become distracted from their goal. Like I said, Tevez is a gamble but the rewards are enormous if it pays off.

Welcome to my blog!

Hello and a Happy New Year to you! Firstly, welcome to my brand spanking new blog – I hope it is to your satisfaction. 2012 promises to be a bumper year for sport with Euro 2012, the Ryder Cup and that minor event of the Olympic and Paralympic Games all gracing our presence within the next 12 months. That’s on top the annual sporting events that we all know and love from the Grand Slams to the Premier League to the Formula One World Championship (now of course on Sky…)

So join me for what could be the best year of sport for a very long time or what could turn out to be one of the biggest disappointments in recent memory. Either way we’ll have a lot of fun along the way and maybe I can introduce you to a couple of new sports too!

I’m looking forward to it already,

Tom

 

I’m also on twitter @tom_davidson