Australian Open Catch-Up

It’s the semi-final stage of the year’s first Grand Slam and I thought now would be a good time to review the predictions I made almost a fortnight ago.

On the men’s side, it’s not gone well if you’ve staked money on my predictions (why would you?!) I can only apologise. I predicted Tsonga to challenge the top 4 but he was embarrassed by Japanese star Kei Nishikori. Let’s not even discuss Raonic,my outside bet, who was dismantled by a Lleyton Hewitt who was only in the main draw by virtue of a wildcard. Yes Hewitt is a home favourite and an ex Grand Slam winner and former World Number One but his time has been and I was extremely disappointed that Raonic did not cement his place as a major force to be reckoned with by convincingly beating Hewitt – as he should have done with ease. Still, at least that gave Hewitt the confidence to roll back the years and challenge Djokovic for one set. I’m also disappointed that Tomic did not challenge Federer a bit harder because he had been impressive from the start of the tournament.

What about those that are left? Well, surprisingly the player in the best form is our very own Andy Murray. He’s been playing with a confidence we rarely see from him. There’s been no slump in the body language and no tired looking shots, just great shot placement  and a little bit of flair. That being said, he’s not really faced the creme de la creme of world tennis so far. Tsonga would’ve proved a worthy challenge to him but he’s certainly not faced anyone capable of hitting the ball as hard or as accurate as Djokovic. That could be his downfall but for now he should be concentrating on building on that confidence that he’s gathered throughout the tournament. He can only beat what is put in front of him and he’s done that with ease, which is very encouraging. Djokovic has also gained confidence as the tournament has worn on and seems to be on the same sort of level that he was at during the US Open. It’s a shame that one of Murray and Djokovic will not make the final as they really both deserve to be there.

I also said that Roger Federer could have a great tournament and so far his progress has been serene. No real scares along the way and sublime performances against Del Potro and Tomic really have helped his cause. Lest we forget he has also had the benefit of a walkover against Andreas Beck in the second round. That extra day off could give Federer the extra energy he needs to get through to the final although in recent years he has had a habit of choking in the last few rounds at the Grand Slams. He is also facing the constant thorn in his side that is Rafael Nadal who will surely be out for revenge after the humiliation he suffered at the O2 Arena in November. I said that Nadal would struggle here and he’s proved me wrong. He always manages to battle through and he’s faced some harder opponents than his closest rivals. He looked a little vulnerable against Berdych and Federer might just have too much for him this time around but you never know with Rafa. Worryingly, it says a lot for the state of mens tennis at the moment that the top four players occupy all of the semi-final slots.

On the women’s side, I’m pleased to say that my predictions were pretty close. Wozniacki struggled and has finally had to yield her Number 1 ranking. Clijsters had a massive scare against Li Na before finding a second wind and should be knocked out tomorrow by an ever improving Azarenka, who has conducted her business in this tournament with almost stealth-like fashion. Sharapova finally got her game together against a tough (and quite attractive!) opponent in Sabine Lisicki but as I predicted, Kvitova is the one to beat. She really deserves to be World Number 1 at the moment and I would like to see her go on and win this. Big names like Serena Williams and Jelena Jankovic were never really in any position to win this week but the big disappointment for me was Sam Stosur. I felt this could have been her year – home support, winning the last Grand Slam of the season in 2011 and decent form all should have propelled her into the latter stages of the tournament but instead she fluffed her lines and fell at the first hurdle.

Men’s Semi-Finals Preview

Friends and rivals but which one will come out on top on Thursday night?

Nadal vs Federer

So, here we go again. This will be the 27th competitive meeting between the 2 players widely regarded as being the greatest to ever play the game. Nadal leads the head-to-head 17 to 9 and you can expect the TV stations to whack that stat out a fair few times in the build up to the match. A rivalry shouldn’t be compelling if there’s been that many meetings between the two players but this one gets even more fascinating with age. Part of that is down to the fact that no two matches are anything close to similar with Federer and Nadal; they are always trying to outfox each other and to try something new because they both know each other’s games inside and out. Then you have the clash of styles – Federer with his artistry and pure textbook strokeplay against the power, resilience and fiendish spin of Nadal – that makes these two players an absolute privilege to watch. This time though, the fire has been stoked even further. We had Federer’s destruction of Nadal at the O2 which I mentioned earlier but in the build up to the Open we saw the first signs of a personal conflict between the two greats when Nadal accused Federer of basically not manning up and using his influence to make the ATP World Tour calendar a bit more manageable. All this points to another incredible contest out on Rod Laver Arena, one that will go the distance. It really could go either way but I really do fancy Federer to just scrape by.

Prediction: Federer in 5 sets

Murray vs Djokovic

He's no Tim Henman but could this be his year?

The World’s best tennis player against the perennial choker – no contest right? Well maybe not this time. Murray has been playing sublime stuff throughout these two weeks and has been really unlucky that he has to face the only other player who has matched him so far. The pressure will be on Djokovic though; he’s the World Number 1, he’s the guy who had possibly the greatest season in living memory in 2011, he is going for the Grand Slam (winning all four Grand Slams in a row) and has to defend his ranking points. I think it’ll be a lot tighter than last year’s final but I’m going to play conservative and go with the form books and opt for a Djokovic win. Murray has a very strong chance here though.

Prediction: Djokovic in 4 sets

Women’s Semi-Finals Preview

Kvitova vs Sharapova

Petra Kvitova - A new force in women's tennis?

Petra Kvitova could be the new World Number 1 by the time that this tournament is over… but then again so could Sharapova, which gives this match an added significance as major ranking points are on the line. These two are big hitters and although Sharapova can give as good as she gets, she found it tough going against Kvitova in the Wimbledon final last year. Kvitova looked impressive then although I’m sure many people thought it would just be a flash in the pan, but thankfully Petra didn’t see it like that and looks set for a second Grand Slam final as I can’t see Sharapova troubling her too much.

Prediction: Kvitova in straight sets

Azarenka vs Clijsters

Victoria Azarenka, the stealthy assassin at this year's Australian Open

As I mentioned earlier, Victoria Azarenka has very much been the forgotten woman of this tournament. She has taken care of all of her opponents with cold-hearted ease and should do the same against a weakened Clijsters. Kim looked shaky against Li Na but somehow came through and beat Wozniacki fairly comfortably yesterday but Azarenka does not have any real injury concerns and is in much better form than either Li Na or Wozniacki. It’s hard to see Kim winning this one.

Prediction: Azarenka in straight sets

So there we go, a little round up for you all and some predictions that will probably be miles wide of the mark but I hope you’ve all had fun. I’ll see you at the weekend for a Sharapova vs Clijsters and Nadal vs Murray double bill 😉

I’m also on twitter @tom_davidson

Ride-Height, What’s the Big Idea?

 

Would it have been these two cars at the front of the field if the ride-height system had been given the go-ahead by the FIA?

Anyone who follows Formula 1 will know that the big story in the last few weeks has been the ride-height innovation that Lotus and Ferrari had been developing over the last couple of seasons.

The story goes that Lotus (that’s the old Renault team, not the Team Lotus that entered the sport in 201o) have been developing a system that controls the height of the car under braking since the middle of the 2010 season and had initially been given the green-light from the FIA that such a device would be legal. Ferrari have also been in development of their own similar device but from a much later date, it is understood. The issue is that as of yesterday, the FIA has officially declared any such device illegal, which re-ignites political troubles within the sport.

The proposed device was attached to the push-rod on the front suspension and then reacted to braking forces that were placed on that part of the car. This means that the car remains at a constant level throughout braking and into acceleration out of the corner and it is through that rising and falling of the front of the car that causes aerodynamic imbalance. When I first heard of such a system being built, I spent about an hour trying to work out how such a device could be legal. For one, ride-height systems had been banned for as long as I could remember in F1 although I figured that because this was more of a suspension device, whose secondary (if not more effective aim) was to adjust ride-height. The other issue was that the device could not be driver operated which would leave this particular innovation in a grey area. On the one hand, it is not being directly operated by the driver’s hand but is activated by the pressing of the brake pedal which could be construed as driver activated. It was a huge gamble from Lotus and Ferrari to recoup some of the lost downforce that the banning of the blown diffuser would produce. It is perhaps the fact that it was a device attached to the suspension that made the FIA initially approve it but it also proved to be the reason why we won’t see it on the grid in 2012…

Red Bull run a pull-rod system on their rear suspension, it’s part of the fabric of their successful car and part of the reason why other teams didn’t get as much success from the blown diffuser. If the device had become legal then it would have surely been placed on all four corners of the car and it would be Red Bull that would suffer as the device had been designed for push-rod cars. When a team wins four World Championships in two years in such a dominant fashion as Red Bull then they begin to become a big earner for Formula 1 through increased popularity and competition between sponsors to be the name on the side of that car. This gives them a lot of leverage with the FIA and Bernie Ecclestone as we saw with Ferrari throughout the late 90s and early noughties and it also helps that Sebastian Vettel and Mr Ecclestone are great friends. The ban certainly helps Red Bull and although Lotus and Ferrari knew the device probably would face  stringent criticism, the ‘green light’ must have given them a false hope.

McLaren also could have benefited from a proposed lifting of the ban on ride-height systems. Does anyone remember 2010 when Martin Whitmarsh was banging on for the first few races of the season about how the secret of the Red Bull was a ride-height control system only for him to then bang on about a flexing front wing and over-exuberant blowing of the diffuser as other reasons for Red Bull’s pace when it became apparent that there was no mythical ride-height system in place on the RB6. Whitmarsh did admit at the time that McLaren had developed a ride-height system to be put on the car at the 2010 Chinese Grand Prix but that the FIA had declared it illegal. If the ban was lifted, McLaren already have a device ready made and set for the first race which may have been another factor in the FIA’s decision.

A rather complicated diagram showing how the device would work

The banning of the ride-height device is not necessarily a bad thing. It means that the field remains even – for now – although Adrian Newey surely has something lined up his sleeve. The FIA and Bernie are both trying to ensure that the field is not as distantly spread as in 2011; another dominant Red Bull season would not be good for business or for interest in the sport as Bernie tries to expand it into unchartered territories. With the smaller teams clearly unable to compete with the the big boys when it comes to spending money researching and developing complicated aerodynamic devices and so both authoritative parties would rather see a more simpler, driver dependent version of F1 of which the closest resemblance is the 2009 season which without the double diffuser issue could have been anyone’s to win. More importantly, any lifting of the ride-height ban would have seen a return to the early 90s and the days of active suspension and traction control where the only skill the driver really needed to possess in such a car was the ability to put his right foot on the throttle and brake occassionally. F1 2012 could be the year of simplicity but as with anything in the world of Formula 1, don’t bet on it.

Welcome to my blog!

Hello and a Happy New Year to you! Firstly, welcome to my brand spanking new blog – I hope it is to your satisfaction. 2012 promises to be a bumper year for sport with Euro 2012, the Ryder Cup and that minor event of the Olympic and Paralympic Games all gracing our presence within the next 12 months. That’s on top the annual sporting events that we all know and love from the Grand Slams to the Premier League to the Formula One World Championship (now of course on Sky…)

So join me for what could be the best year of sport for a very long time or what could turn out to be one of the biggest disappointments in recent memory. Either way we’ll have a lot of fun along the way and maybe I can introduce you to a couple of new sports too!

I’m looking forward to it already,

Tom

 

I’m also on twitter @tom_davidson