The European Championships are almost upon us with the game between Poland and Greece this afternoon in Warsaw acting as the official curtain-raiser to a tournament that threatens to be overshadowed by off-field issues. With English expectations displaying a distinct air of pessimism, attention in the British media has turned to the potential threat of violent and racist abuse during the Championships. We’ll go onto that later but for now lets focus on footballing matters with a preview of the groups and players to watch.
Expect a few Premier League scouts to be keeping a keen eye on Alan Dzagoev.
Group A
Poland
Greece
Russia
Czech Republic
The clear favourites to win the group are Russia and with good reason. In a fairly weak group they have the most organised side with a manager with proven success in Dick Advocaat. They should just have the cutting edge over the other teams who will rely on their rock solid defences to get them through.
Poland will be hoping that home advantage (for at least half the tournament) can inspire their players to exceed expectations. Expect Dortmund players Lewandowski, Blaszczykowski and Pisczceck to be integral to the Poles’ chance of success.
The Czechs usually perform well at the Euros (remember Euro 96?) and they could well be the dark horses of the group this time round. In Petr Cech, they have a world class ‘keeper on a high from his recent Champions League success who will be hard to beat. Tomas Necid will be their main hope for goals alongside Milan Baros but these have been hard to come by recently for the Czechs. It should be between the Poles and the Czechs for second place.
Finally, we come to Greece. Unfortunately for the troubled Greek public (and me seeing as I got them in the sweepstake) Euro 2012 doesn’t promise to be the antidote for economic depression that they want it to be. The Greeks might have won in 2004 using a brand of defensive football that was so backwards the rest of Europe didn’t quite know how to play against it. Admittedly I thought at times they were fantastic in 2004 particularly against France at the quarter-final stage. Sadly though, the Greeks haven’t evolved their style of football since their unexpected triumph and have been left behind by tiki-taka and the like. I fully expect Greece to be the whipping boys of Group A but for my sake and that of the Greek people, I’ll be clinging to the cliché that anything can happen in football.
One to Watch
It’s between Necid and Russia’s Alan Dzagoev. Dzagoev promises to be the more explosive and with decent service he could make the difference in a group that is so focused on keeping a clean sheet. If he does that, CSKA Moscow can expect a stiff battle to hold onto his services.
Can Cristiano Ronaldo win his first major international tournament?
Group B
Netherlands
Denmark
Germany
Portugal
This is the definition of “Group of Death”. It’s a bit of a travesty that Group A is so weak and this group is terrifyingly good. To think that the competition is going to lose big name from Sneijder, Eriksen, Ozil and Ronaldo after just three games is a sobering prospect. The Netherlands and Germany are my top two but it would be no surprise to see the other two sides pushing them all the way.
The Netherlands were very impressive at the 2010 World Cup… until they threw all their hard work away by auditioning for a kung-fu movie during the final. You look at their squad and see talent in every department. In goal they have an enviable choice between Maarten Stekelenburg, Tim Krul and Michel Vorm and while their defence is the weak link in the side there’s still the talent of Van der Wiel, Heitinga and Bouma. Where the Dutch really come alive is in the midfield with a ridiculously strong showing in the centre of the park; Van der Vaart, Sneijder, Robben, Van Bommel and de Jong are all present behind Robin Van Persie who has been in scintillating form this season. This could just be the Netherlands’ tournament.
Germany have been a bit off colour in their warm up matches, losing 5-3 to Switzerland before lumbering to a 2-0 win over Israel. That being said, Germany always have a knack of performing at major tournaments no matter what form they’ve been in previously. Like the Netherlands, they have a brilliant squad that is capable of beating anyone but their focus is likely to be on the forward threats. Mesut Ozil has proved himself to be one of the best playmakers in the world and he’ll play alongside Thomas Müller, Toni Kroos, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Lukas Podolski and the exceptional wonderkid Mario Götze. In addition to that fearsome group you can add Mario Gomez, Phillip Lahm and Manuel Neuer to create a well-rounded team. If Germany find their form early on then it’ll be difficult to stop them reaching the latter stages.
Portugal are perhaps the most likely to disrupt the Germany/Netherlands stronghold. Of course they’ll need to rely on Cristiano Ronaldo and his impressive record of 60 goals this season in all competitions for Real Madrid. Unfortunately for Portugal and Ronaldo, the squad looks likely to have to rely solely on him for success as per usual due to a lack of depth and key players suffering from a lack of form. Nani in particular is one who hasn’t performed this season and will be under intense pressure to compliment Ronaldo’s creativity. One saving grace for the Portuguese is the presence of Pepe who has been in good form all season and can organise the defence against the threats from Netherlands and Germany. In Ronaldo they have the best player in the tournament but he’ll need to be in his very best form in order for Portugal to trouble the knockout stages.
Lastly we have Denmark and they could be a bit of a dark horse. Christian Eriksen will be key to any success that Denmark is to have in Poland and Ukraine and Danish fans will be hoping that he puts in a performance that matches his potential. Denmark can also rely on Christian Poulsen and Thomas Kahlenberg in midfield while the talented Simon Kjaer can provide some solidarity at the back. Up front, Nicklas Bendtner will have to start finishing his chances if Denmark are going to get anywhere in this competition. Fortunately for the Danes, they play some nice football which should at least keep them in the hunt for victories.
One to Watch
Take your pick from Robben, Sneijder, Van Persie, Gomez, Müller, Götze and Ronaldo. It’s probably the latter who will stand out individually seeing as he is Portugal’s main force of attack in addition to being the best player in the tournament. I think he’ll relish the challenge of leading his team into battle against the likes of the Netherlands and Germany and will back himself to win having almost single handedly guided Real Madrid to La Liga success.
Xavi and Iniesta’s beautiful passing football will be integral to Spain’s success
Group C
Spain
Italy
Republic of Ireland
Croatia
Spain have the chance to win their second consecutive European Championship in addition to their 2010 World Cup success. If they do win this tournament then it is safe to say that this Spain squad can be regarded as one of the greatest to ever play on the international stage. However, their path to victory may not be as simple as it was in 2008 or in 2010. The squad is older now and they’re missing key players in David Villa and Carles Puyol; lets not forget that David Villa almost single-handedly took Spain to the World Cup final with his goalscoring ability and it will be up to misfiring striker Fernando Torres to step into the breach. That being said, the squad seems to blend together with ease. Both Real Madrid and Barcelona players embrace the tiki-taka style of play which leads to some scintillating stuff being produced. The midfield is the heartbeat of the Spanish side and during this tournament they can call upon: David Silva, Xabi Alonso, Cesc Fabregas, Xavi, Iniesta, Sergio Busquets and Jesus Navas. On paper they’re the best side here but a gruelling domestic season and complacency could scupper their chances, remember what happened to France after their back-to-back victories?
Italy are the other side fancied to progress from this group. Unlike Spain, they had a disastrous World Cup and will look to improve on that poor showing. Italy has a good squad to call upon with players such as Buffon, Pirlo, De Rossi and Chiellini all returning from an impressive domestic campaign. Much rests on the shoulders of that lovable rogue, Mario Balotelli, who will be tasked with combining his considerable talent with some aptitude. If he turns up with the right attitude then Italy could do well and he could be one of the stars of the tournament but if he lets the threat of racist abuse get to him (more on that later) Italy’s gameplan could become undone. There’s also been a lot of off-field dramas which could derail their bid for victory; recent earthquakes and the infamous match-fixing scandal have caused Italians to re-examine their relationship with the national game. Domenico Criscito is a notable absence from the final squad as he seeks to clear his name from the scandal. If they can work to triumph in the face of adversity then they could be quite a formidable side. Much will depend on their first two games against Spain and Croatia but I’ll stick my neck out and say they’ll make it through the group.
Croatia could pose a threat to Spain and Italy if they get their attack working nicely. Luka Modric has always been earmarked as one of the world’s top players but I never felt that he’s had the impact of others around him. He usually performs well for Croatia though so I can see him being the key player for Slaven Bilic’s side. His role will be to get the ball to Croatia’s potentially potent front-line which includes Everton’s Nikica Jelavic. If Croatia has a weakness then it is their weak defence which Spain will relish picking holes in. It’s an experienced back-line but will still fall apart against slick passing play. The rest of the side looks a match for Italy and that game on the 14th June could be crucial in this group.
The underdogs in this group are the Republic of Ireland. They will see this tournament as vindication for failing to make the last World Cup because of THAT handball but sadly they’ve been dealt a rough hand with this draw. They’ve found goals hard to come by and Robbie Keane is their biggest threat in front of goal. One factor that counts in their favour is the squad’s experience – players like Shay Given, Damien Duff, Robbie Keane, John O’Shea and Richard Dunne have all played on the biggest stages in football and will be undaunted by the prospect of these championships. I think the Republic of Ireland will enjoy the experience of competing in Poland and Ukraine but I don’t think we can hold our breath for an Irish presence in the knockout stages.
One to Watch
Balotelli could be the most explosive player in the group but I think one of the Spanish players will stand out. Torres has the chance to prove he’s still the player he once was and Xavi and Iniesta always catch the eye but I think that David Silva will be the star performer. He’s been in great form all season for Man City and will be a menace for the defence’s in this group.
Can Karim Benzema lead the French to glory?
Group D
Ukraine
England
France
Sweden
England fans, look away now. I think we’ll get mercilessly slaughtered at these Championships. People point to Euro 96 as being similar to this – low expectations, injuries to key players and an ‘atmosphere’ within the team – but Euro 96 was held on our home turf, not hundreds of miles away on the continent. To be fair we’ve been dealt a rough hand with this group. It was just about as bad as it could be. Our perennial group stage opponents Sweden will pose a challenge and France will obliterate us. The absence of Rooney is big but he wouldn’t be able to make up for the shortfall in talent that we have elsewhere. We might have beaten Norway and Belgium in our warm-up games but they didn’t have the quality to make it to this tournament and they outplayed us for large periods of the game. In Roy Hodgson we have a manager who is tactically astute and internationally experienced and he has done the right thing by bringing in youth to this tournament, giving them the chance to gain valuable experience ahead of the 2014 World Cup. I’m predicting a loss and two draws on the way to a disappointing exit in the group stages.
France on the other hand look sublime. Laurent Blanc has galvanised a side that has promised much in recent years but delivered little. The squad has excellent depth and combines promising youngsters with seasoned veterans. The French now appreciate possession and have invented a brand of football not too dissimilar to Spain’s but with a certain Gallic flair. They’re unbeaten in 18 matches and have recorded wins over Brazil and Germany in that time. Players such as Yann M’Vila, Blaise Matuidi and Marvin Martin will step up to the mark during this tournament and will provide the creativity that the French were so lacking at the last World Cup. Their weakness is in their attacking strength, having picked only two recognised strikers. It’s not a bad partnership – Olivier Giroud and Karim Benzema – who have spearheaded Montpelier and Real Madrid to domestic glory respectively but if one of them gets injured then it’s curtains for the French campaign. If they keep them fit and get them lots of service then France are destined to finish in the top four.
Sweden are a bit like a weed when it comes to international competitions – they’re always present but they just sort of sit there. Apart from the days of Brolin and Dahlin, the Swedes haven’t set the world alight but I fancy them to pounce on a weak English side and qualify for the latter stages. Sebastian Larsson and the always entertaining Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be vital for the Swedes with the latter being the main focus of attack. If Ibrahimovic forgets his scoring boots then the Swedes will be packing their bags. Another key player will be Martin Olsson who will be tasked with organising a pretty shaky defence. If they can keep firm at the back then that might just be enough to see them through the group.
Co-hosts Ukraine must be feeling the pressure. While Poland have a fighting chance of making it out of their group, the Zbirna need a minor miracle. Attention will turn to Andriy Shevchenko (now aged a sprightly 35), Andriy Voronin and Artem Milevskiy. Andriy Yarmolenko could also be a handy player but sadly I think they’ll come up short in a group that looks set to be dominated by the French. Hopefully the Ukrainian fans will realise just what a tall order it is to qualify from this group and won’t be too hard on the players when the inevitable happens.
One to Watch
Baring Danny Welbeck, Jordan Henderson or Oxlade-Chamberlain setting the world alight, I think we have to look at a Frenchman to be the star of Group D. Take your pick from staple players like Ribery, Lloris and Mexes or from the array of impressive youngsters such as Adil Ramil, Yann M’Vila and Marvin Martin. I think either Yohan Cabaye or Samir Nasri will impress the most. Both have been excellent for their sides in the Premier League and should make the step onto the international stage with ease.
UEFA will hope that images like these aren’t what the world takes away from Euro 2012
Sadly, as I mentioned earlier, external issues threaten to overshadow the prospect of a classic tournament. The most prevalent of these concerns is a far-right presence in Poland and Ukraine. A vast number of reports have provided evidence of planned abuse of black players and pro-Nazi chanting. Mario Balotelli has threatened retribution if he is racially abused and several black players’ relatives have decided against travelling. UEFA has tried to downplay the far-right activity but has ended up ‘doing a bit of a FIFA’ in PR terms. Michel Platini said that any player walking off the field of play due to racist abuse would be given a yellow card, completely contrasting the view of the majority of the developed Western world. When the inevitable racism occurs UEFA will have to walk a very delicate line with their response. In fact, it has emerged that black Dutch players were targeted in an open training session in Krakow with UEFA claiming that locals were just angry about the city not hosting a game at the Championships. That’s fine for now but what about when the racism occurs at a stadium that is hosting a game?
Another issue has been the boycott of UK ministers (and the proposed boycott of other EU ministers) of the Championships due to the alleged human rights abuse in Ukraine. Opposition leader Yulia Tymoschenko has been imprisoned for corruption but many believe that the current government took a dim view of her part in the Orange Revolution of 2004. She has since gone on hunger strike during her time in prison and the Ukrainian authorities have tried to brush the story under the carpet. If the EU ministers do boycott then it could be a major embarrassment for the organisers and sponsors.
Predictions
I truly believe that this tournament has the potential to be an absolute classic. You’ve got four or five teams of utmost quality – namely France, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands – who can all produce the highest standard of football on their day. Behind them there’s Italy, Portugal, Russia and England who will be hoping to defy the odds with a little bit of luck. It all makes for a fascinating prospect (aside from the external issues of course.)
Here’s my prediction for the top 4:
Winner: Germany
Runner-up: Spain
3rd Place: France
4th Place: Netherlands
Germany have the efficiency required to counter Spain’s possession football and I make them favourites for the tournament. They’re well-organised, talented, young and have a good amount of depth. France should look forward to a strong showing but they’ll come to regret not picking more than 2 strikers while I think the Netherlands will continue to underachieve at elite competition level.
16 teams will dream of lifting this in a few weeks time.
We’ll do another preview at the knockout stage but until then come on the Greeks!
The Eternal Sunshine of the Sporting Mind 